墨西哥航空 (AERO) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：创纪录营收与12%营业利润率lg...

墨西哥航空（Aeromexico，AERO）公布2026年第三季度创纪录的季度营收，主要得益于国际航线需求、高端产品及忠诚度计划的推动。然而，燃料成本上升、通胀以及外汇相关成本增加仍是制约盈利能力的主要因素。

核心要点

• 2026年第三季度营收达到创纪录的16.2亿美元，同比增长13.6%，运力则增长约1%。
• 调整后EBITDA为3.89亿美元，利润率为24%。营业利润达到1.90亿美元，营业利润率为12%。
• 高端产品收入占总营收的42%，同比上升1个百分点；同时Aeromexico Rewards忠诚度计划渗透率上升8个百分点至40%。
• 在长途市场和美国区域的推动下，国际业务营收增长17.4%。随着世界杯带来的临时影响有所缓解，国内业务营收增长6.7%。
• 燃料成本比公司此前季度业绩指引中的预估高出约9300万美元。不过，扣除燃料后的单位可用座席公里成本（CASM）环比有所改善，同比增加7%，而上半年的增幅约为15%。
• 管理层预计第四季度营收增长率约为14%至16%，调整后EBITDA利润率为19.5%至21.5%，营业利润率为7.5%至9.5%。

核心财务数据

墨西哥航空在更新忠诚度计划的失效预估（breakage）并对递延负债进行调整后，确认了4900万美元的营收。

业务与运营表现

国际业务营收同比增长17.4%，长途市场和美国区域表现强劲。随着世界杯带来的临时扰动消除，本季度内国内业务营收增长了6.7%。

客座率在8月达到90%，9月达到87%。管理层表示预售预订保持强劲，尽管计划扩大运力，第四季度的已预订客座率仍领先约2至3个百分点。

Aeromexico Rewards仍是主要的商业增长引擎。兑换收入增长了27%，大约是总营收增速的两倍。该计划的渗透率达到创纪录的40%，而2023年重新收购并重命名时这一比例仅为21%。

线上直销渠道占总销售额的48%，维持在历史最高水平，同比增长2个百分点。管理层将这一改善部分归因于重新设计的品牌票价以及高端产品与价格敏感型产品之间区分度的提高。

第四季度的运力增长将主要由欧洲和亚洲的宽体机运力推动，包括蒙特雷—巴黎的全年航班以及墨西哥城—巴塞罗那航线的常态化运营。在墨西哥城机场每小时时刻从44个增加到46个的支撑下，国内运力预计增长3%至4%。

美国交通部取消此前的限制，使墨西哥航空在符合监管要求的前提下，能够更加灵活地增加赴美航线和航班频次。管理层表示，任何相关的运力扩张最早将于2027年开始。

管理层指引

第四季度前景展望假设综合燃料均价约为每加仑4.50美元，汇率约为18墨西哥比索兑1美元。

管理层表示，外汇因素使呈报的第四季度营收增长指引降低了约2个百分点。按照7月份假设的汇率计算，公司表示第四季度的营收增长率将在16%至18%左右。额外的燃料成本回收措施并未实质性纳入正式指引中，如果需求保持弹性，可能会带来额外上行空间。

风险与关注焦点

燃料仍是近期最大的压力来源。第三季度燃料支出比此前的指引假设高出约9300万美元，管理层称近期航空煤油价格接近每加仑5美元，属于异常高企。

墨西哥比索走强、通胀以及机队相关费用也推高了非燃料成本。尽管墨西哥航空拥有天然的货币对冲，但汇率波动会影响以美元计价的呈报营收和成本，并可能影响从墨西哥出境的需求。

公司正密切关注美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）对墨西哥航空安全等级的审查，以及降级至“2级”的潜在风险。管理层表示，该问题取决于墨美两国政府之间的磋商。

墨西哥航空还在继续关注沃拉里斯航空（Volaris）与Viva拟议中的合并事宜。管理层拒绝预测监管部门的决定或可能采取的救济措施。

分析师问答环节点睛

• 外汇因素：管理层表示，比索贬值会同时减少以美元计价的营收和成本，因此对损益的直接影响总体呈中性。与此前指引相比，调整后的汇率假设可能会使第四季度扣除燃料后的CASM改善约2%至3%。
• 燃料成本回收：公司表示，第三季度的营收增长完全弥补了燃料价格同比上涨的影响。管理层估计目前第四季度燃料成本回收率约为90%至93%，并计划通过额外的定价和增加收入举措使其接近100%。
• 需求结构：国际需求依然强于国内需求，其中欧洲、亚洲和美国市场表现尤为强劲。在世界杯相关的影响缓解后，商务出行和高端休闲旅行需求均同样表现强劲。
• 竞争运力：管理层预计第四季度行业运力将温和增长，其中国内运力呈现低单位数增长。墨西哥航空自身7%至8%的增幅主要由长途宽体机飞行驱动，而非增加班次。
• 美国市场扩张：在获得美国交通部决定后，公司正在评估在美国新增运力的方案，同时考量FAA审查的时间节点。管理层明确指出，新服务不会在2026年启动。

业绩电话会议完整文字实录

---

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Aeromexico's Third Quarter 202 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Now I would like to hand the conference over to Ms. Lucio Medina, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Medina, you may begin.

Lucero Angélica Medina González

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today to discuss our results are Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer; Aaron Lure, Chief Commercial Officer; and Ricardo Sanchez Breaker, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this call, we will present results that are based on our unaudited consolidated financials. Accordingly, the financial results discussed today are based on information available to us as of the date of this call and are not a comprehensive final statement of our financial results for any period presented. We may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act regarding future events and our company's future performance. We caution you that several important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from any plans and expectations expressed in this call, including the risk factors disclosed in our SEC filings.

During this call, we will present certain non-IFRS financial measures. We have included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non-IFRS measures to the most comparable IFRS measures in earnings release. Both our call and the earnings release are available on our website.

It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Andres Conesa.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Thank you, Lucero, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. We delivered strong third quarter results, reflecting once again the resilience and unique strengths of Aeromexico's business model. These results also demonstrate the significant progress we have made in recent years to build a stronger and more flexible company, better positioned to navigate periods of uncertainty, including today's high fuel cost environment. I would like to thank the entire Aeromexico team for their commitment and discipline in executing through a challenging environment. By putting our customer first, while maintaining strong cost control, the team continues to protect the quality of our service and capitalize on attractive revenue opportunities. EBIT margin reached a strong 12%, supported by record quarterly revenue that came in above the midpoint of the June guidance range.

In a quarter defined by higher-than-expected and volatile fuel prices, delivering a double-digit EBIT margin is a significant achievement. It demonstrates the strength of our business, our ability to capture premium revenues and the disciplined execution of our teams. Demand remains healthy, supported by a successful peak season that extended through September and delivered outstanding load factors. We also continue to see strong contributions from our premium products and loyalty program, which enhance our offering and reinforce customer preference for Aeromexico. Premium revenue represented 42% of total revenue, up 1 percentage point year-over-year, while loyalty penetration reached 40%, an 8-point increase versus last year. Total revenue grew 14% year-over-year, driven by premium and other revenue streams, including cargo and loyalty.

Together, these factors, along with [ cost ] [indiscernible] revenue management initiatives supported our performance during the quarter. Capacity increased by around 1% year-over-year in the third Q and as the temporary negative impact of the World Cup in June and July normalized, we saw a clear improvement in those factors. August reached 90% and September recorded 87%, which is a very strong level for a shoulder season month following the summer peak. More importantly, forward bookings remain strong, supporting a constructive outlook for the remainder of the year. This gives us confidence that underlying demand trends remain solid and that our capacity is well aligned with market conditions. Revenue growth more than offset the year-over-year increase in fuel costs despite jet fuel prices being generally above our guidance. Fuel costs increased by approximately $170 million year-over-year in the third Q, including nearly $93 million above the guidance we shared with you in early July. However, revenue growth was not enough to offset the combined increase in fuel and nonfuel costs.

In addition to the higher-than-expected sale expense, we experienced an anticipated increase in nonfuel costs derived on inflationary pressures and unexpected cost pressures resulting from the appreciation of the Mexican peso. Even so, our teams responded to revenue initiatives, [ fee ] recapture actions and disciplined capacity deployment enabling us to deliver a very strong level of profitability in the quarter. This third Q also show early signs of a better cost ex-fuel trajectory. Some pressures including FX started to normalize, and our teams continue to manage the cost base with discipline. Looking ahead, as operating leverage yields, [indiscernible], excluding fuel is expected to continue to improve. This is important because it demonstrates that beyond the temporary impact of fuel, we believe that the underlying business is moving [indiscernible] in the right direction, with improving cost momentum and a stronger foundation for sustainable profitability.

As a result of this structural resilience, we ended the quarter with a cash position across the level reported in the third quarter of 2025. Financial debt, including leases, continue on [ LATAM ] trajectory, while we maintain our investment program without raising additional debt. Our focus remains on investing for the future while protecting liquidity and preserving the financial strength of the business. Our network -- we continue to grow through the recently announced routes launching in 2027, including Mexico City to Milan, Guadalajara to Paris, Nassau and [ Monterrey ]. This expansion reflects our confidence in the long-term demand outlook and our disciplined approach to growth, adding capacity selectively in markets where we see attractive opportunities to generate profitable returns. The U.S. Department of Transportation decision immediately revoked its prior order disapproval circle scheduled by Mexican carriers, marks a very positive development for Aeromexico. It removes an important restriction on our ability to add frequencies and launch new scheduled services between Mexico City and the United States, subject to applicable regulatory requirements.

This gives us greater flexibility to capture attractive growth opportunities, strengthen our transborder network and offer our customers more connectivity between Mexico and the United States. Taking care of our customers also delivering a reliable operation, every day in every market we serve. This is something our teams have been focused on and the results are clear. Cirium once again recognized Aeromexico as the most on-time airline in the world during the third quarter. Together with our performance in the first and second quarters, this positions us very strongly to receive this [ recognition ] for the third consecutive year, a feat that no other airline has achieved in history.

Building on our strong third quarter results and solid outlook, we plan to remain focused on operating reliably, protecting revenue performance, managing costs with discipline and further strengthening our balance sheet. Ricardo will provide more detail on our 4Q and full year outlook shortly. Before that, I want to highlight the positive opportunities ahead with resilient demand and a favorable fare environment supporting continuous revenue momentum. We also see full operating leverage and better in our existing fleet. At the same time, we anticipate continuing to invest electively to the customer experience and in the network that makes Aeromexico, the preferred choice for charters. We are confident that this combination of strong execution and disciplined growth and our resilient business model will continue to differentiate Aeromexico and create long-term value for our customers, employees and shareholders.

With that, I will turn it over to Aaron to discuss our commercial performance in more detail. Thank you very much.

Aaron Murray

Thank you, Andres, and good morning, everyone. I want to thank the entire Aeromexico team for their hard work and dedication to our customers for their continued loyalty. As Andres mentioned, we delivered the strongest quarterly revenue performance in Aeromexico's history with total revenue of $1.62 billion, up 13.6% year-over-year. This performance reflects strong demand across the network and the benefits of the commercial initiatives we are executing. International revenue showed strength across all entities, increasing 17.4% year-over-year, led by long-haul markets in the U.S. region. Growth in the U.S. region was especially notable given the high comparison base as last year's third quarter marked the inflection point in U.S. demand recovery.

In domestic, performance strengthened throughout the quarter as we distance ourselves from the World Cup, resulting in domestic revenue growing 6.7% year-over-year. Turning to commercial initiatives. Aeromexico Rewards continued to be an important driver of customer engagement and revenue quality. As Andres mentioned, program participation reached a new record in the third quarter of 40%, up 8 points year-over-year and 19 points since the program's reacquisition and rebranding in 2023.

Redemption revenue grew 27% year-over-year, 2x more than total revenue growth for the quarter as investments in the program continue to bring value to customers. Regarding modern airline retailing, our redesigned branded fare structure is driving significant incremental revenue by better aligning our product offering with different customer needs and willingness to pay. This enables us to more effectively position our premium offering while expanding our ability to compete from our price-sensitive demand. These capabilities continue to support growth in our direct online channel, where in the third quarter, direct online share remained at an all-time high of 48%, up 2 points year-over-year and 23 points versus 2019.

These initiatives are giving us greater control over how we present, differentiate and monetize our products, enabling more disciplined execution of our premium strategy while giving us the flexibility to compete across a broader range of customer segments.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Ricardo will provide details of our guidance. We continue to see strong demand trends across all geographies. In September, our fall sales campaign generated 45% more revenue than the previous year. In response to rising fuel costs, Aeromexico remains focused on deal recapture initiatives and maintaining flexibility and capacity management. Regarding capacity, fourth quarter growth will be driven primarily by wide-bodies as Aeromexico continues expanding its long-haul network in Europe and Asia enabled by recent 787 deliveries. This wide-body growth reflects a continued [indiscernible] of demand in traditionally weaker periods, particularly in European markets, and includes the extension of Monterrey Paris to year-round and the annualization of our recently launched Mexico City Barcelona service.

In addition, in the fourth quarter, we plan to grow domestic capacity between 3% and 4%, enabled by the increase in Mexico City slots from 44 to 46 per hour. We expect this growth to enhance our leading domestic position at our hub.

In closing, we believe Aeromexico is well positioned to deliver a strong finish to the year, supported by continued revenue momentum, growing customer engagement and a disciplined approach to growth.

I'll now turn the call over to Ricardo.

Ricardo Sánchez Baker

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. First, I would like to join Andres and Aaron impacting the entire Aeromexico team for its outstanding efforts and execution during the quarter. Our results reflected [indiscernible] to remain focused, responsive and discipline for navigating significant fuel volatility, foreign exchange movements and a more demanding than expected cost environment. Our results demonstrate the strength and resilience of our business model and the durable structural advantages we have been [indiscernible]. In the third quarter, total capacity measured [indiscernible] sense, increased 1% year-over-year generally in line with our guidance. We manage capacity carefully by raising profitability. International ASMs grew 3%, [ or domestically ] event declined 3%, aligning supply with demand. As Aaron mentioned, revenue reached $1.6 billion, [ 40% ] year-over-year and a record for any quarter. [indiscernible] increased 12% driven primarily by passenger revenue and cargo and other commercial initiatives. Total revenue increased by $194 million more than offsetting the $121 million year-over-year increase in fuel prices. This [indiscernible] performance was driven by resilient demand, strengthened international markets, targeted revenue management initiatives and continued growth in our premium products and reality programs. The result was particularly significant given that fuel costs were approximately $93 million above the level contemplated in the guidance provided last quarter.

During the third quarter of 2026, Aeromexico based [indiscernible] program breakage, the first such alignment in 2018. To date reflects current member activity and long-term program trends. This update resulted in the recognition of $49 million in revenue for the period, together with an adjustment to our deferred liability. More importantly, this affected breakage establishes the rate bank that we expect to drive sustained growth in our annual revenue moving forward.

Our revenue growth fully offset the year-over-year increase in fuel prices. The combined impact of higher fuel costs anticipated increases in other operating costs and the impact of the stronger Mexican peso continues to pressure profitability. Despite the broader cost pressures, our disciplined execution and strong revenue performance supported an EBIT margin that remains among the strongest in the industry. Total operating expenses increased 22% year-over-year, primarily due to a 58% increase in TL expense, our fuel prices averaged nearly $4 per gallon compared with [indiscernible] in the third quarter of 2025. Our efficient fleet help mitigate this impact with fuel consumption down 2% and fuel bond for [ AM ], including [indiscernible]. Excluding fuel, operating expenses increased 10%, primarily reflecting the stronger Mexican peso, inflationary pressures and costs associated with fleet growth. CASM ex fuel increased 7% year over year, the improvement over the approximately 15% increase recorded during the first half of the year. This progress reflects decal discipline, operating efficiency and a more stable foreign exchange environment. As we continue to capture operating leverage opportunities by generating more [ licenses ] with our existing assets, we expect our half next year to turn more favorable.

Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $389 million, representing a strong 24% margin, while operating income reached $190 million, resulting in a robust 12% operating margin. The strength of our financial results underscore the structural durability of our business model and our ability to preserve healthy profitability despite a challenging cost environment. In our view, however, the most important financial results of the first 9 months of the year has been our strong cash flow generation. Aeromexico generated $542 million in net cash from operating activity through September 30, 2026. Enabling loss to from our planned investments are continued to reduce financial debt. During the third quarter, we repaid an additional $7 million of debt, further strengthening our balance sheet despite elevated fuel prices and other cost pressures. We ended period with $965 million in cash and cash equivalents, up $31 million year-over-year. We also renewed and upsized our revolving base facility from $200 million to $250 million, giving total liquidity to $1.2 billion, equivalent to 21% of last 12 months revenues. This decree position provides a strong foundation to continue investing in the business or preserving financial facility.

Looking ahead, our updated guidance reflects a late assumptions for fuel prices, foreign exchange and inflation-related expenses. For the fourth quarter, we expect capacity to increase between 7% and 8% year-over-year. The rating leverage that began to emerge in the third quarter should become more visible in the fourth quarter and continue to build in the years ahead. We expect fourth quarter revenue growth of approximately 14% to 16%. This outlook reflects robust demand, the strength of our network and disciplined commercial execution. With the strong demand, a stronger revenue base and high limitation of our assistant fleet, we expect generate more revenue and use our existing cost base more efficiently, supporting the stronger margins over time. More importantly, we expect to achieve this without having incremental fleet or taking on additional debt to fund growth. We anticipate further cash on fuel to remain double flat year-over-year. For the fourth quarter, we expect an adjusted EBITDA margin between 19.5% and 21.5% and an operating margin between 7.5% and 9.5%. Taken together, this will take us to our full year 2026 capacity growth of approximately 2% to 3% and year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 13.5% to 14.5%.

We expect full year adjusted EBITDA margin between 21.5% and 22.5% and full year operating margin between 8.5% and 9.5%. Our guidance assumes an average all [indiscernible] price of proportionately $4.5 per [ gallon ] for the fourth quarter and an exchange rate of approximately [ 18 pesos ] per pole. We cannot predict how fuel prices will moderate, but we believe they will eventually inclusion. When that happens, our ability to capture premium revenue together with our operating leverage embedded in the existing platform that we have should be able to unlock additional profitability opportunities. In the meantime, we remain focused on strengthening Aeromexico in a maturing environment. Our structural advantages and a strong cash generation should continue to report our competitive position, and we believe that the assets in Aeromexico and its competitors should continue to item in the following months.

With that, we will open to call for questions -- thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question is going to come from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth Worth with Evercore.

分析师问答

Duane Pfennigwerth

Can you just remind us, just play back for us the impacts from changes in FX. Our understanding is a modestly soft peso will lower or help your unit cost slightly lower your unit revenue, but be net neutral or maybe even a slight tailwind to margins. Can you just speak -- just remind us if we're now, say, modeling 18% or 18.5% instead of 17% how that impacts your revenue, costs and margins?

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Thank you, Duane. Let me make some comments and then maybe Ricardo will dig a bit deeper. So as you know, we have a natural hedge on the currency. So basically, this movements do not affect the P&L. However, they have an impact on demand, like a second order impact were a stronger peso means stronger demand for [ Mexico ] flying abroad and the other way around. With the peso at these levels around between [ 18 and 19 ], we feel that the demand for -- to travel from Mexico abroad continues to be solid. We are in a good spot. Obviously, when the peso was -- it starts below MXN 17 per dollar. It was even stronger during the summer. But again, we see at these levels of the currency, very strong demand for Mexican struggling [ abroad ]. So a weaker peso that we are expecting versus the July guidance means lower costs in dollars and lower revenues in dollars. So even though we kept the total revenue projections in the guidance, flat versus what we were expecting in July, we see there is an impact of this weaker peso, which is equivalent to around 2 percentage points. So that's really, really important.

If you consider that the expected growth in revenues for the 4Q is between 16% and 18% versus the 4Q of 2025. So it's very, very solid. And we continue to take additional steps to strengthen revenue. Aaron can we discuss that in more detail. But again, this -- the new level of jet fuel that we are seeing, for example, is relatively new is the past 3 weeks or so, we get full approaching $5 per gallon its growth. It's a new norm. We are, as Ricardo explained for the quarter, expecting a way higher jet fuel price, which means around $170 million of pressure. And we are acting. So hopefully, with these actions, plus what I adjusted for this peso effect, we can even get closer to a growth rate of around 20% in total revenues for the quarter.

Again, this [ would ] to say today, but we're working on that direction. Ricardo?

Ricardo Sánchez Baker

Yes. Just to complement, Andres, and respond about the revenue side. Looking at the cost side, if you look at the anticipated or estimated as ex fuel for the 4Q versus the previous guidance. obviously is that cases can be better in around 2% to 3%, given also this FX impact. So yes, we have some impact on the revenue side that Andres already described. And on the cost side, we see some positive impact on past year. Go ahead. Sorry.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Yes.Just a follow-up kind of on fuel recapture initiatives. We've obviously been a difficult year in terms of needing to recapture cost of fuel. We have had a lot of success, though, and even in recent weeks, continue with the rising fuel to find regional success in passing those costs on. So our revenue guidance is in no way an indication that we feel like we've hit the end of that. In fact, with all these initiatives that have been deployed this year, we haven't seen any signs that there's any cracks in demand that maybe we've gone as far as we can.

So I think implicit in our guidance is not too much more recapture for the quarter. But we do feel like as we deploy those initiatives that could be upside. SP-4 Detailed response. And then just for my follow-up, -- can you speak to competitive capacity trends that you're seeing here into the fourth quarter? It does look like the capacity picture gets a bit tighter sequentially from 3Q to 4Q domestically in Mexico. I wonder if you could speak to that as well.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Well, what we are seeing, if you look at the capacity projections for the other 2 carriers in Mexico, they are down, they have been revised down, particularly for 1 of them, which is even projecting high single-digit contraction for the first Q. So we are not anticipating the pressures on the capacity side in the domestic market. There is an increase in the loss in Mexico City are mentioned from 44 we are covering our fair share of that, and we expect other airlines to follow. We yet having seen too much activity, but it's rational to anticipate that those will be covered, and that is what partially explains our growth for the 4Q.

What I want to stress, as Aaron mentioned, that this growth of between 7% and 8% that is driven by widebody flying, right? Again, those flights that we started after the 4Q of 25 that year-on-year and the plus some additional narrow-body flying, particularly in the domestic market as we catch up versus the previous actions before it's sustainable growth, it's disciplined growth. And it doesn't consider any additional flying to the U.S. because the VLT order was lifted just at the end of last week. So we are analyzing our options, and we soon will hear positive rules on network expansion to the U.S., but it will not happen this year.

It will be -- if anything, it will be at the start of 2027. Duane, a few more details on that. First of all, our 7% -- 7% to 8% capacity growth, as Andres mentioned, super efficient growth, almost all driven by state Engage versus departure growth. So that's, I think, important context. And then when you look at -- just to give you some specifics on OA capacity growth for the fourth quarter, some modest growth domestically, low single digits, 3 points of growth. a little bit more on international for points, but much below our growth in the quarter. So I look at the OA industry capacity growth in the fourth quarter to be favorable.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

Shannon Doherty

This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. So we saw the headline come through about Volaris and [ Viva's ] expected merger approval by the end of this year. We're anticipating to see some remedies. Do you have any thoughts on what they could be and if Aeromexico would benefit from potential revenues?

Operator

Shannon, I'm sorry, we didn't hear that very well. Could you please repeat?

Shannon Doherty

Yes. Just on Volaris and Viva's expected merger approval by the end of this year, and we're anticipating to see some remedies. Do you have any thoughts there? And would Aeromexico potentially benefit from remedies?

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Thank you for the question. We are waiting for the decision of the authorities. As we mentioned before, -- our job is to continue strengthening our business. We continue to invest in our line to continue differentiating ourselves, our model from the to ULCCs. So that's our job. And I think, again, as I mentioned in our remarks, we have a very positive trend. We are very happy where the business is going. And so we have been obviously the contact with the authorities sharing our views. And we cannot comment if it's going to be approved or not, but certainly, -- in the past, many locations in other parts of the world when this type of lorry, they are usually come with remedies, which ran if it's approved, we do not know yet. -- and we are not now we will show and explain our position.

But again, I think we are in a good spot with where we are today and going forward.

Shannon Doherty

And if I may follow up, with the increase in slots from 44 to 46 per hour, -- do you think that this number increases further? I know the pre-pandemic airport is running in the low 60s. So I'm just wondering if there are any conversations about raising the slot limit further given the DOT's revocation, which would support further service to the U.S.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Yes. Again, this increase was in Yesterday, our Secretary of Transportation, we are in the unperforming this rise in Mexico City. He participated and she was that question and he did mention -- but going forward, by the end of this decade, we can expect to see a larger number of operations in Mexico going to high 40s. That was a thesis we were in line with what we are projecting.

Operator

And our next question is going to come from Guilherme Mendes with JPMorgan, your line is open.

Guilherme Mendes

Yes. Andres, Ricardo, Aaron. I have a follow-up on the fee recapture and demand trends. I guess the initial remarks on the strong demand environment was very clear. But just wanted to better understand the breakdown between leisure, corporate domestic and international, which segments are you seeing another performance in which segments are you seeing underperformance?

Andres Castañeda

Yes, I can take that. Yes, in terms of performance and where we're seeing strength and as we look out into the fourth quarter, -- we're super optimistic on the wide-body fleet, Europe and Asia, in particular, because that's where all our growth is coming. So with the capacity expansion, we're going to daily in intron later in the winter to period. And then we're up 25% or so in Europe. -- in the fourth quarter. And given that capacity growth, we're really happy with the increases in fares and traction we're seeing demand were booked ahead in terms of load factor and really across the board in all geographies. We sit here for the quarter, up about 2 to 3 points in book load factor with that kind of capacity increase.

So I think strength generally across the board, more international than we are in domestic. And I think that follows in addition to just performance overall, where we're seeing fuel recapture maybe highlighting another entity would be the U.S. You may recall, fourth quarter U.S. was quite strong in the comp. And even on top of that, we're seeing strong fuel recapture that's been seen and demand that really hasn't slowed down.

Again, while [indiscernible] echo Andres' excitement about the DOT resuming the order and us being able to grow into the U.S. in the future. So if those would be the geographies where we're seeing strength no real weakness is, I mean, domestic market is a little different and the competitive set is a little different. So your process for getting fuel recapture isn't the same. But generally speaking, across the board, we're pretty optimistic within all geographies.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Let me to complement what Aaron mentioned. Gener -- if you look at the numbers, revenue growth offset the fuel pressure. So we were able to recapture more than 100% of the future pressure, again, not enough to consider the growth in other costs associated with inflation in Mexico like labor costs, but it was a very strong performance. for the 4Q in the guidance that we gave, a few recaptures tell today at 90, 92, 93 with the initiatives that we described that we are not included, but may result in better revenue numbers. We feel confident that we can get close to 100% offset of the fuel. And I don't think many airlines in the industry can have this type of results.

Guilherme Mendes

Very clear. If I may follow up on breaking down between corporate and leisure, corporate continues to be relatively stronger?

Aaron Murray

Yes, we're seeing strength of Boston across both those segments. We just did a corporate survey, a little pulse survey, and the vast majority of corporates are looking at fourth quarter demand at stable or slightly up. Corporate -- where we did see some corporate impact was during the World Cup, there was definitely, and this was not surprising. But as hotel and fair prices were hydro in the cup in addition to just people the excitement around the cup, we did see corporate not grow at the same pace as the leisure business. But that's really -- as we've transitioned and distance ourselves from the top, both corporate and high-end leisure are behaving at a similar clip year-over-year. So both real strong demand.

Operator

And our next question is going to come from the line of Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley.

Jens Spiess

So yes, my first question is on the fourth quarter guide, specifically how it changed versus your previous 4-quarter guide? -- right? If we look at it, obviously, the biggest variable to change this is obviously the fuel price assumption. But at the end of the day, your revenue guidance was slightly declined despite the higher fuel. I mean some of it might be due to FX, right? But I was wondering, are you not -- didn't -- haven't you raised fares versus what you're expecting within your previous guidance to offset that higher fuel option.

And also trying to understand how this will impact like the next year, right? I mean, Andres, you already mentioned some metrics on fuel recapture. But assuming that fuel remains at this elevated level, I don't know, 4.3%, 4.5% whatever. But should we expect more pronounced fair increases in revenue growth in the first quarter next year?

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Yes. Thank you, Jens, for your question. When we did the guidance, July and we expressed that we were expecting despite there was a piece announcement Jet fuel went down we were expecting as to speak at least for the -- until the end of the year, and that was reflected in the guidance. only the fires didn't even stick, jet fuel prices went up. But, this -- we're paying, as you know, historically high jet fuel prices. We've never say this jet fuel in history, not all the earnings, right? Even though crude oil is up 10%, and we touched 180 back 15 years ago, the jet fuel only for a couple of days when the comp either in the train started -- we didn't -- it was these levels. But what we are seeing today is a Spain is the first time in history. We are adjusting -- we have many initiatives in place every day in the we take this is, again, new the last 3 weeks.

It's not reflected these initiatives on their items. Hopefully, they will see -- we see very strong demand. Today, we are not in a position to review the guidance because, again, they are very new. We need to wait a little bit more time. but we are working on it. And again, let me stress once again the strong dollar versus the peso, reflected 2% lower growth in revenue for the 4Q. So if you adjust for that, if you go back to the July exchange rate. Growth for 4Q would be between 16% and 18% versus the 4Q of 2025. So adjusting for the peso and again, these initiatives that we are taking, we could be close to the 20% year-on-year growth for the 4Q, which would be outstanding and would put us, again, in a full position in the industry. And that's where we want to be, and we're working on that direction.

Aaron Murray

Yes, I would just add to Andres' comments. And as I mentioned before, I wouldn't dismiss the headwind that FX has on revenue. But implicit, I think, in our guidance, and the expectation is not that we're going to have significant movements on the fair recapture side. So it's conservative from that regard. With that being said, we are seeing no signs of demand cracking, right? And we're going to go back like we do every week and look for opportunities to pass the cost of fuel on to consumers.

And we're pretty optimistic that at this point through the year we've had to not have any signs of weakness in demand. I think that bodes well for us to continue to push on fuel recapture.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

The additional fee impact versus the July guidance it's $170 million. It's around 11% of margin points. So -- if you adjust for that in the guidance that we gave, EBIT margins are close to 20%. Again, with already high fuel prices, which are the ones that we were expecting in July, not the same level that we were seeing in 2025. So that's where you can then how structurally the companies.

Jens Spiess

All right. Perfect. And one additional question. On the DOT ruling and the lifting of the restriction in Mexico City. I mean you already mentioned that you plan to deploy additional capacity to the U.S. in mainly Next. But given the current FAA review and the potential like I mean downgrade to Category 2. Isn't there like a window of opportunity to anticipate those capacity deployments just to raise your capacity ahead of any potential downgrade?

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Yes. On the FAA review, as you know, the Mexican government provider statement last week where they stress that the old very well. Obviously, there are in many of its some observations, much lower number of observations versus the last FAA-that was done a few years ago. I mean we are very close to the authorities. We heard that they will be able to renovate those observations. Again, in the Alarm that was held for the our Secretary of Transportation, he stressed because one of the concerns that the FDA had was the budget for the civil aviation authority in Mexico. So he mentioned that the budget considered for 2026, an increase of close to 60% in the resources to the attack, which is a civilization authority.

The FAA the tranport was there. And they got together, they mentioned they have productive meetings teas in the unperforming as well. So we did 60% that will strengthen the capacity of the civil aviation authority to regulate the industry. They plan to higher mentioned around 500 more people we did 100 in 2026. So things are looking fine on that front. Again, it doesn't depend on us. It's an issue between the 2 governments. But we have that in mind, things look well and our decisions to expand the labor to the U.S. Obviously, we consider that. Aaron?

Aaron Murray

Yes, I'll just add too. There was the window that you discussed in the back and forth, it was I guess a follow-up happening in February. So we're definitely, as we think about deploying capacity and expanding to new markets in the U.S. We have that window of mind.

Operator

And our next question is going to come from the line of Ernst Anton, Morgan Cotter, eras with GBM.

Unknown Analyst

Just a quick one. I was wondering if anything related with the recent events in Europe and specifically in France have as us any maybe change in the demand for some regions or affecting some of your long-haul travel.

Operator

I'm sorry, I didn't hear you very well. Could you please repeat? Maybe get a little away from the phone.

Unknown Analyst

I was asking if anything related to the events that recently happened in France and Europe has maybe impacted negatively any of the demand that you're seeing in your long haul?

Aaron Murray

Yes, we haven't seen any impact due to that. Obviously, watching closely as those events unfold. But so far, no impact on demand.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

We started, as you know, the new flight between Monterrey and Paris. And it's been -- the performance has been very solid since the start. So we were keeping it going forward. And we are launching, as I mentioned before, Guadalajara Paris. So like Madrid, where we expanded from Guadalajara and Monterrey, Paris is the next point in Europe where we will deploy that strategy and looking the clients have not affected -- this is Ricardo. We have a couple of questions from the webcast that we would like to respond. The first question is related to the implications of our guidance for the fourth quarter in terms of our cash flow performance.

As we described in our remarks, we are convinced that first of the year, we have been able to flow of last year. So this has been really a remarkable achievement we expect that this trend will continue for the fourth quarter. So overall for the full year, we expect that strong [indiscernible]. The second question that we have in the webcast is related to our [indiscernible], in the third quarter we reported in [indiscernible]. We already have the aircraft in our fleet and the assets [indiscernible].

Thank you again for your time for being able to join the call. We continue to strengthen revenue to contain costs to continue providing the outstanding levels of profitability. We keep you posted on any relevant issue that we face. And we look forward for a very solid 4Q and then of this challenging year. Thank you very much again. And any follow-up questions, please let us know. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

原文链接