罗伯特哈夫 (RHI) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：人才解决方案重回增长lg...

核心要点

• Robert Half公布2026财年第三季度营收为13.59亿美元，按调整后基准计算同比大致持平。人才解决方案（Talent Solutions）业务自2022年以来首次恢复调整后增长，同比上升2%。
• 稀释后每股收益（EPS）从0.43美元增长14%至0.49美元，标志着自2022年以来首次实现季度每股收益的同比增长。
• 调整后营业利润从上年同期的6100万美元（占营收的4.5%）增至7300万美元，占营收的5.3%。
• Protiviti业务营收按调整后基准下降3%，但其调整后毛利率从23.0%提升至24.1%。管理层预计该业务将在第四季度恢复营收同比增长。
• 第四季度业绩指引预计营收为12.85亿至13.85亿美元，每股收益为0.36至0.46美元。按中点计算，调整后营收同比增长3%，每股收益同比增长30%。
• 管理层将招聘活动改善、Protiviti技术咨询业务营收创新高以及反洗钱整改需求增强列为主要经营驱动因素。

关键财务数据

Robert Half于9月支付了每股0.59美元的季度现金股利，现金总支出为5900万美元。

业务与经营业绩

人才解决方案业务实现了自2022年以来的首次调整后营收增长。合同制人才解决方案业务营收在9月及整个季度均增长1%，而常规招聘（永久安置）营收在第三季度增长6%，9月增长5%。

在第四季度初期，10月前两周的合同制营收同比增长2%。前三周的常规招聘营收增长5%。管理层提醒称，这些时间段太短，无法确立明确的趋势。

在对专业化程度、汇率和国家组合进行调整后，合同制人才解决方案的账单利率同比上涨3.6%，而第二季度增长为2.3%。合同制毛利率从38.9%提升至39.3%。管理层将这40个基点的提升中一半归因于转正费营收，另一半归因于利差扩大，包括向更高技能岗位的转变以及纪律严明的定价。

人才解决方案整体毛利率从46.7%升至47.4%。调整后营业利润从2400万美元（占营收的2.8%）增加到3600万美元（占营收的4.0%）。

技术类业务仍是合同制用工中最强劲的领域，而财务与会计业务恢复了同比增长。管理层表示，需求继续集中在包括技术现代化、数据、网络安全和IT基础设施在内的高优先级领域。大型企业客户复苏较快，而中小企业也开始跟上步伐。

Protiviti创造了4.83亿美元的营收，其中美国市场为3.83亿美元，国际市场为1.00亿美元。美国市场的调整后营收下降5%，而海外市场增长2%。

Protiviti的调整后营业利润为3700万美元，同比持平，而调整后营业利润率从7.5%提升至7.7%。在平台转型、网络安全、数据及AI相关项目的支撑下，技术咨询业务创下季度营收历史新高。

风险与合规需求显著改善。管理层将这一增长归因于监管执法行动要求金融机构加强反洗钱计划。这些项目属于承包商密集型，使得Protiviti能够抽调人才解决方案业务的专业人员，并在全企业范围内拓展交付规模。

管理层业绩指引

Robert Half发布了以下2026财年第四季度业绩指引：

13.35亿美元的营收中点意味着调整后同比增长3%。管理层给出的0.41美元每股收益中点代表30%的增长。该中点假设人才解决方案业务营收增长3%，Protiviti增长2%。

人才解决方案第四季度调整后营业利润率指引为2%-4%，Protiviti为6%-8%。调整后销售、一般及行政费用（SG&A）预计占综合营收的33%-35%。

公司预计2026财年资本支出及资本化云计算成本为6000万至7000万美元，其中第四季度为1500万至2000万美元。

对于2027财年第一季度，管理层预计由于内部审计季节性和年度薪酬调整，Protiviti的板块利润率将环比下降中单数个百分点。从历史来看，第一季度的综合营业利润率通常比第四季度环比低1到2个百分点。公司目前预计第一季度税率为36%-40%，股权激励将带来额外的波动性。

风险与关注焦点

• 管理层表示，宏观经济和地缘政治的不确定性继续影响通胀、利率及客户的决策。
• 需求仍具有选择性，主要集中在客户无法推迟的项目上。管理层表示，以往复苏期常见的那种广泛的“清理出清事件”尚未发生。
• 合同制用工总量同比依然下降，但降幅正在收窄。
• 第四季度的假期可能会带来波动，特别是在常规招聘和Protiviti业务中，因为部分客户会在圣诞节至新年期间放缓活动。
• 在价格调整完全体现之前，Protiviti在第一季度面临来自内部审计季节性和薪酬增加的正常压力。
• 管理层指出，内部AI工具带来的个人生产力提升并不会自动转化为全公司范围内等额的成本节省。

分析师问答环节亮点

反洗钱需求：管理层表示，近期监管行动显著增加了反洗钱整改及合规工作需求。这些项目预计将持续多个季度，有时甚至会持续数年，不过具体时长取决于客户的资源分配及外部顾问的使用情况。

利润率潜力：管理层依然专注于推动Protiviti逐步实现双位数的营业利润率。近期的成本举措、更高的人员利用率以及承包商密集型的反洗钱项目都在支撑利润率提升。此前的重组预计将提供约1100万美元的季度薪酬节省（包括第四季度）。

招聘复苏：管理层将人才解决方案业务的复苏描述为平稳而非爆发式。常规招聘和合同制用工趋势被视为是同步的，其中常规招聘通常在下行周期中降幅更深，但随后也会从较低的基数更快反弹。

长期增长框架：管理层将中单数字的增长定性为人才解决方案业务的长期预期。对于Protiviti，管理层给出的潜在增长区间为中单数字至低双位数，同时强调这些是长期预测，而非近期业绩指引。

AI战略：Robert Half目前的AI投资主要集中在提升客户与候选人体验、匹配算法以及潜在客户优先级排序上。管理层还注意到，市场对兼具业务专业知识、熟练应用AI能力、批判性思维以及验证AI生成工作成果能力的专业人才需求日益增长。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

---

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Please stand by. Hello, and welcome to the Robert Half Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

Our host for today's call are Mr. Keith Waddell, President and Chief Executive Officer of Robert Half; and Mr. Michael Buckley, Chief Financial Officer.

Mr. Waddell, you may begin.

M. Waddell

Hello, everyone. We appreciate your time today. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that the comments made on today's call contain forward-looking statements, including predictions and estimates about our future performance. These statements represent our current judgment of what the future holds. However, are subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. ..

These risks and uncertainties are described in today's press release and our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update the statements made on today's call. During this presentation, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures as adjusted. Adjusted revenue growth excludes the impact of billing day variations and foreign currency exchange rates. Adjusted gross margin, SG&A and operating income reflect the combining of investment gains and losses related to employee deferred compensation plans with corresponding changes in those obligations. These items have no impact on reported net income.

Reconciliations and additional information are included in the supplemental schedules to our earnings release. For your convenience, our prepared remarks for today's call are available in the Investor Center of our website, roberthalf.com. For the third quarter of 2026, Global Enterprise revenues were $1.359 billion, roughly flat with last year on an adjusted basis. Talent Solutions returned to adjusted year-over-year revenue growth for the first time since 2022, with revenues increasing 2%. Global Enterprise earnings exceeded the midpoint of our third quarter guidance.

Hiring activity continues to improve, supported by gradually improving market conditions. Demand for risk and compliance consulting services also showed encouraging signs of improvement during the quarter. Our combination of innovative technology, specialized expertise and high-touch client service positions us well to deliver the talent and consulting solutions clients need to advance their business priorities. Net income per share in the third quarter was $0.49, up 14% from $0.43 a year ago. This marked the first year-over-year increase in quarterly earnings per share since 2022.

Cash flow provided by operations during the quarter was $66 million. In September, we distributed a $0.59 per share cash dividend to our shareholders of record for a total cash outlay of $59 million. Return on invested capital for the company was 17% in the third quarter.

Now I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Mike Buckley.

Michael Buckley

Thank you, Keith. Hello, everyone. As Keith noted, global revenues were $1.359 billion in the third quarter. On an adjusted basis, third quarter talent solutions revenues were up 2% year-over-year. U.S. talent solutions revenues were $670 million, up 3% from the prior year's third quarter. Non-U.S. talent solutions revenues were $206 million, 1% down. Delivered 6% growth. We conduct talent solutions operations through offices in the United States in 18 other countries.

In the third quarter of 2026, there were 64.6 billing days compared to 64.2 billing days in the third quarter 1 year ago. The fourth quarter of 2026 has 61.1 billing days compared to 61.4 billing days in the fourth quarter of 2025. Billing days for the 4 quarters of 2027 will be 61.5, 63.7, 64.5 and 61.5% for a total of 251.2 billing days in the year. Currency exchange rate fluctuations during the third quarter had a de minimis impact to reported revenues. Contract talent solutions bill rates for the third quarter increased 3.6% and compared to 1 year ago, adjusted for changes in the mix of revenues by functional specialization, currency and country.

This rate for the second quarter was 2.3%. Now let's take a closer look at results for Protiviti. Global revenues in the third quarter were $483 million, $383 million of that is from the United States, and $100 million is from outside of the United States. On an tasted basis, global third quarter productivity revenues were down 3% versus the year ago period. U.S. Productivity revenues were down 5%, while non-U.S. Protiviti revenues were up 2% compared to 1 year ago. Protiviti and its independently owned member firms serve clients through locations in the United States and 27 other countries.

Turning now to gross margin. In contract talent solutions, Third quarter gross margin was 39.3% of applicable revenues versus 38.9% in the third quarter 1 year ago. Conversion or contract to hire, revenues were 3.4% of contract revenues in the current quarter compared to 3.2% in the third quarter of 2025. Our permanent placement revenues were 13.4% of consolidated talent solutions revenues in the current quarter compared to 12.9% in the third quarter of 2025. When combined with contract talent solutions gross margin, overall gross margin for talent solutions was 47.4% of applicable revenues in the current quarter compared to 46.7% and in the third quarter of 2025.

For Protiviti, gross margin was 24.2% of Protiviti revenues in the third quarter and 20.9% in the third quarter 1 year ago. Adjusted gross margin for Protiviti was 24.1% for the quarter just ended compared to 23% last year. Enterprise SG&A costs were 33.6% of global revenues in the third quarter compared to 36.2% in the same quarter 1 year ago. Adjusted enterprise SG&A costs were 33.8% for the quarter just ended compared to 33.5% 1 year ago. Talent solutions SG&A costs were 43.2% of Talent Solutions revenues in the third quarter versus 48.2% in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusted talent solutions SG&A costs were 43.4% compared to 43.9% for the third quarter 1 year ago. Third quarter SG&A costs for Protiviti or 16.4% of Protiviti revenues compared to 15.5% for the same quarter 1 year ago. Reported operating income for the third quarter was $75 million, adjusted operating income was $73 million in the quarter or 5.3% of revenues. This compares to $61 million or 4.5% of revenues 1 year ago. Third quarter adjusted operating income for Talent Solutions was $36 million or 4% of revenues. This compares to $24 million or 2.8% of revenues last year.

Adjusted operating income for Protiviti in the third quarter was $37 million or 7.7% of revenues, adjusted operating income for Protiviti in the third quarter 1 year ago was $37 million or 7.5% of revenues. Our third quarter 2026 income statement includes a $2 million loss from investments held in employee deferred compensation trusts. This is completely offset by an equal amount of lower employee deferred compensation costs, which are reflected in SG&A expense and direct costs. As such, it has no effect on our reported net income.

Our third quarter tax rate was 33% in both the current quarter and the third quarter 1 year ago. At the end of the third quarter, accounts receivable were $826 million and implied days sales outstanding, or DSO, was 54.8 days. Before we move to fourth quarter guidance, let's review some of the monthly revenue trends we saw in the third quarter and so far in October, all adjusted for currency and billing days. Contract talent solutions exited the third quarter with September revenues up 1% versus the prior year, the same as the 1% increase for the full quarter. Revenues for the first 2 weeks of October are up 2% compared to the same period last year.

Permanent placement revenues in September were up 5% versus September 2025. This compares to a 6% increase for the full quarter. For the first 3 weeks in October, permanent placement revenues were up 5% compared to the same period in 2025. We provide this information so that you have insight into some of the trends we saw during the third quarter and into October. But as you know, these are very brief time periods. We caution against reading too much into them.

With that in mind, we offer the following fourth quarter guidance: revenue, $1.285 billion to $1.385 billion, income per share $0.36 to $0.46. Midpoint revenue of $1.335 billion are 3% higher than the same period in 2025 on an adjusted basis. midpoint earnings per share of $0.41 and are 30% higher than last year. Our midpoint revenue guidance for the fourth quarter reflects year-over-year revenue growth of 3% for talent solutions and 2% for Protiviti. The major financial assumptions underlying the midpoint of these estimates are as follows: adjusted revenue growth year-over-year for talent solutions, up 1% to 5%.

For Protiviti, flat to up 4% overall up 1% to 5%. Adjusted gross margin percentages, contract talent, 38% to 40%; Protiviti, 22% to 25% overall, 37% to 40%. Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of revenue for talent solutions, 43% to 45% for Protiviti 16% to 18% and overall 33% to 35%. Adjusted operating income as a percentage of revenues for talent solutions, 2% to 4% for Protiviti 6% to 8%. And overall, 3% to 5%. The assumed tax rate, 31% to 33% and shares outstanding 100.5 million to 101.5 million shares.

2026 capital expenditures and capital cloud computing costs, $60 million to $70 million with $15 million to $20 million in the fourth quarter. For the first quarter of 2027, we offer the following directional observations. Number one, historically, Protiviti Q1 segment margins seasonally decline by mid-single-digit percentage points on a sequential basis. There are 2 primary drivers. Internal audit revenues are negatively impacted as clients focus instead on annual financial statements and related external audits.

In addition, Protiviti employees receive annual compensation adjustments effective January 1, which are recovered through pricing adjustments realized as client contracts are negotiated. Segment margins then improved accordingly. Based on this, first quarter consolidated operating margins have historically been 1 to 2 percentage points lower sequentially than the fourth quarter. Number two, there is typically more variability in the Q1 tax rate compared to other quarters related to the vesting of our employee stock compensation awards. We currently expect the Q1 tax rate to be between 36% and 40%. All estimates we provide on this call are subject to the risks mentioned in today's press release and in our SEC filings.

Now I'll turn the call back over to Keith.

M. Waddell

Thank you, Mike. Our third quarter results reflect continued improvement in our talent solutions operations and Protiviti, both contract talent solutions and permanent placement achieved year-over-year revenue growth. Technology remains the strongest performing practice group within contract talent solutions while finance and accounting also returned to year-over-year revenue growth.

Across markets, clients remain focused on securing specialized expertise for high priority initiatives particularly in the areas such as technology modernization, data, cybersecurity and IT infrastructure. Small and midsized businesses continue to face significant challenges finding the skilled talent they need. According to latest NFIB data, labor quality and availability is a top business problem, reflecting a persistent skills gap that highlights the value of Robert Half's ability to connect clients with highly experienced professionals who can make an immediate impact.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty continues, including impacts to inflation and interest rates. Against this backdrop, organizations large and small, remain resilient and are steadily increasing their investment and opportunities to modernize operations and strengthen their competitive position. Whether implementing new technologies, improving productivity or advancing strategic initiatives, organizations that need specialized talent and expertise to execute effectively. These investments create opportunities for our talent solutions and consulting services.

Highly skilled professionals remain difficult to find, particularly in specialized disciplines, and demand candidates have choices and remain focused on flexibility, career development and competitive compensation. These conditions play to Robert Half's strengths, including our ability to quickly connect employers with specialized talent, possessing the skills and experience organizations need.

AI has increasingly becoming part of how it gets done across the professions we serve. Rather than broadly displacing specialized roles. These technologies are instead adding to the skills employers value and increasing the importance of professionals who compare strong functional expertise with AI fluency, critical thinking and sound judgment. The ability to assess and validate AI-generated outcomes is becoming an increasingly important part of that skill set.

At the same time, the growing use of generative AI by job seekers is making it more challenging for employers to distinguish between candidates stated qualifications and demonstrated capabilities. This underscores the value of our candidate evaluation and vetting processes, combining proprietary performance insights, rigorous skills assessment and the judgment of our recruiters to help clients hire with greater confidence. As these challenges become more widespread, our ability to identify and validate highly capable talent represents an increasingly important competitive advantage.

Beyond its impact on the hiring process, AI adoption is also creating new opportunities for specialized talent, weather related to AI exploration or for implementation across their operations, we are seeing growing demand for highly qualified talent to support this transition. This includes professionals with expertise in technology, data, finance and business transformation as well as those who can apply emerging technologies with their respective disciplines. These evolving requirements reinforce the value of our specialized recruiting expertise and deep understanding of the skills employers need.

Protiviti's results exceeded our expectations for the quarter with every major solution or capability area above forecast. Technology consulting again posted all-time high quarterly revenues with high demand for platform transformation, cybersecurity and data-related and AI engagements. The risk and compliance practice made significant progress during the quarter, which is expected to continue. Leading the way were engaged to help clients address existing enforcement actions where regulators required further improvements to the quality and effectiveness of their anti-money laundering programs.

Demand across Protiviti's broader solution offerings remain solid with a growing and diversified pipeline of opportunities. We expect Protiviti to return to year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter. Our ability to strategically leverage contract professionals through our talent solutions business remains a distinct competitive advantage, enabling us to deliver flexible solutions for clients while strengthening collaboration across the enterprise.

We're encouraged by the progress in our business and remain confident in the opportunities ahead as businesses navigate changing technology workforce and operational requirements, we see continued opportunities to help clients access the expertise they need to adapt, execute and grow.

Our purpose has never been more relevant: helping companies succeed through specialized talent and consulting expertise while helping people build meaningful careers backed by our trusted brand, exceptional people innovative capabilities and diversified business model, we remain confident in our ability to create long-term value for our clients, our employees and our shareholders.

Finally, we want to recognize and thank our employees around the world for their continued dedication to our clients. Their commitment is reflected in Robert Half's recent accolades, including being named among Fortune's Best Workplaces in Consulting & Professional Services, Forbes' World's Best Employers and Forbes world's Top Companies for Women.

Now Mike and I'd be happy to answer your questions. Please ask you just 1 question and a single follow-up as needed. If there's time, we'll come back for additional questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

分析师问答

Andrew Steinerman

Keith, could you just help us dissect the pickup within Protiviti, particularly, I'm curious about the demand for AML compliance services. Earlier in the year, we said that sort of like the regulatory backdrop. Was it as fierce for AML compliance.

Has something changed obviously, you're saying the demand for the risk and compliance is one of the drivers to bring productivity back to growth in the fourth quarter. Is it the biggest driver that's changed kind of third into the fourth quarter for Protiviti?

M. Waddell

The answer is yes. So during the last 90 days, treasury department regulators imposed significant fines and major enforcement actions against multiple large financial institutions, they -- most of them were in the news, and they related primarily to prior consent orders where the remediation efforts were found to be deficient. And this put banks generally all notice that AML compliance was still a top priority in part because it has direct links to national security.

And so these actions require many activities, including historical lookbacks, significant increases in transactions and file review volumes. Often, these involve third-party consultant to clear. Protiviti is fortunate to have a very strong presence in AML, have broad relationships across financial institutions. It does business with over 80% and of the largest financial institutions globally. We're seeing a meaningful increase in demand for AML remediation and compliance. And the really good news is it benefits the entire organization because a significant amount of the work comes from contractors sourced through talent solutions. So it's a win for everybody.

Operator

And your next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

John Ronan Kennedy

Going from how difficult it is to find verified talented individuals and your ability to do that as well as a whole slew of new skills that are coming to the fore. And so the question is, to what extent do you think that those trends make you a little bit more resistant to any sort of macro downturn that we could potentially have given where fuel prices are, where interest rates are, just kind of the geopolitical environment.

And then as a follow-up to that, if we can keep going, what does that say with regards to the margin profile for next year because the incremental margins look like they're pretty good. And it seems like you have a lot of excess capacity. I know it's a long question, but I just wanted to drill down on those new elements.

M. Waddell

Well, and I think the first 1 was related to resilience if the macro weakens, and I would say, in addition to it's difficult for clients to find talent, particularly verified talent for the reasons we've talked about. Unemployment is low, generally speaking, which also makes it harder for our clients. The new skills are more difficult for our clients to source on their own. And we can also correlate existing skills to needed new skills in a way that is hard for our clients to do on their own.

And so I clearly think we're positioned well relative to prior cycles because of the lower unemployment, still at 4.2% in the U.S., in part because of the newer requirements, in part because verification of skills is more important than ever with AI. And so we feel relatively good about resiliency and as to margin profile, as you're already seeing, even with low single-digit growth that we've seen this past quarter that we're projecting for the coming quarter.

The combination of a little higher gross margin, a little leverage, we've got nice double-digit increases in operating income at midpoint for Q4, that's up 30%. With some luck, that will be even more as we move forward. And so coupled with Protiviti strength, particularly in regulatory compliance, we're pretty bullish about margin possibilities.

Mark Marcon

That's great. And can you just -- you've had really nice improvements in terms of Protiviti margins. Do you think that, that can also continue. I know the leverage that you've got on the on the talent solutions side. But I don't know if you have that same excess capacity with regards to AML?

M. Waddell

Well, I would say remember the cost actions that they took just last quarter, and so those cost actions are a big contributor to the better margins because the remaining people are higher chargeable or more utilized, if you will, use of contractors by Protiviti is margin accretive, and these AML projects are very contractor heavy. So that's a good thing for Protiviti's margins.

But as we've said many, many times for many, many quarters, the plan for Protiviti is to have double-digit operating margins, and that continues to be the plan. And so I think they made tremendous progress in a very short period of time with their margins. And this new demand and additional revenue that comes from more AML is even better news. And let's not forget that technology consulting is still Protiviti's largest practice group. And it just again the all-time high quarterly revenues.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Trevor Romeo with William Blair.

Unknown Analyst

Mike. I wanted to actually continue kind of on the margin theme, but shift to gross margins for the contract count solutions business. Because I think the bill rates accelerated nicely, I think, over a percentage point and your gross margins expanded even adjusted for the conversion.

So maybe you could just talk about that a little bit more, I guess, in terms of mix? Like are you starting to see more movement in terms of highly skilled talent or FTEP placements accelerating? Or just any other factors that might be helping the bill rates and the gross margins for the contract business right now?

Michael Buckley

So year-on-year, we're up 40 basis points in contract gross margin. Half of that's conversions, which is a derivative of the strength in perm placement. The other half is pure spreads, and we have increased our spreads over the last year. Part of that's mix. As we've said, we've moved to higher skill Part of that is mix as to FTEP, which is recovering because it was impacted the most on the downside the last few years. And part of it is just kind of disciplined execution because gross margin maintenance and defending those have always been a priority at Robert Half and will continue to be.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. That's great. And then I guess on the first quarter directional observations that you gave, of course, appreciate the comments on margins and the tax rate. I guess as you stand today with your current visibility, is there anything in terms of the top line that would tell you kind of differently than normal seasonality for revenue at this point? Or just how would you kind of I don't know, message the trends that you might see there?

Michael Buckley

I think the seasonal trend is a seasonal trend that will be around for a long, long time. And so because of the internal audit crowd out as clients focus on external audit. And because of all the compensation adjustments that all fall on the same first day of the year, you're going to have those impacts. But you recover from them the rest of the year, clearly, this improvement in regulatory risk and compliance will help the revenue side, but that doesn't directly impact internal audit, and internal audit is the 1 where they have the crowd out phenomenon, as I just spoke to.

Unknown Analyst

And I guess in terms of the talent solutions business, is there anything maybe different than you'd normally expect?

Michael Buckley

Not really. It's always a little quirky about what day of the week or months that the holidays fall, but that's just business as usual. But other than that, in talent solutions, we've seen steady, consistent sequential improvement day by day, week by week. It's not a hockey stick. But it's a steady rise that we've seen for a few quarters now that we see no reason wouldn't continue.

Operator

And the next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta

Just to maybe drill down a little bit on Protiviti. Obviously, in the first quarter, you talked about some seasonality. As you look at the fourth quarter, is there any seasonality or lumpiness? I know the holidays probably have an impact. But I'm curious, based on the growth guidance you gave, if there would be any onetime issues? Or this is just a consistent improvement in the business?

M. Waddell

Well, I would say the holiday impacts Protiviti more so than talent solutions because many of their clients do a soft close between Christmas and New Year's. And so there's that impact, which remains, but we have dialed in the benefit of the additional anti-money laundering demand in this fourth quarter, but it's not a one-off.

Kartik Mehta

And then just on the talent solutions. When you look at SMB customers and enterprise customers, any difference or is the recovery but pretty broad-based were both those participating?

M. Waddell

I would say that enterprise traditionally recovers sooner and more quickly. That's been the case this time around. SMB is starting to catch up a bit. And so that's good news. But enterprise always gets a head start.

Operator

And your next question will come from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

Keen Fai Tong

Prime placement revenue grew 6% in the quarter, and that was well ahead of contract talent growth to -- what extent would you say the strength in prime placement serves as a leading indicator of a broader hiring recovery? And historically, what lag have you seen between firm placement and contract staffing?

M. Waddell

And so George, I would say they're coincident. And in fact, if you go to our website, we've got a slide that shows probably for 20 years, we superimpose growth -- year-over-year growth rates for perm over year-over-year growth rates for contract. And my conclusion, look at those graphs is that they're coincident because perm placement always get hit harder on the downside, it's starting at a lower point at a lower base and comes out stronger on the upside.

And I think that's exacerbated by low unemployment that we're currently in, added to by this need for validation because of AI, I think, makes perm relatively speaking, even more positive. And so effectively, easier comps because it gets -- takes a bigger hit on the downside. And because of low unemployment, more demand. because it's harder for clients to hire themselves.

Keen Fai Tong

Got it. That's helpful. And then talent solutions has seen sequential improvement now for a couple of quarters. With contract revenue up 1% and then bill rates up about 3.5%, would you say hours worked or active contract placements have begun to grow year-over-year at this point? And what would you expect to see volumes to become a positive contributor to revenue growth?

M. Waddell

Well, I think for the math to work, the volumes are still somewhat down, but they're increasingly less down and the trend is good for the reasons we've talked about.

Operator

And the next question is from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

Unknown Analyst

This is Roman Kennedy on for Manav. Question on technology has led the recovery in finance and accounting has returned to growth. Are you beginning to see demand broad beyond mission-critical initiatives in some more discretionary hire projects. And -- or is the recovery still concentrated in areas clients simply can't defer?

M. Waddell

Well, it's primarily areas they can't defer. But to the extent they think or decide that there are projects that are critical to their competitiveness. They decide they need to modernize, to get ready for AI, whatever that's going to mean they're willing to spend selectively. But kind of contrasted to prior cycles that corresponded to overall recessions typically ending of an overall recession is a clearing event. There's an all clear bell, everybody, including our SMB clients feel more positive and demand overall increases.

I'd say, so far, it's still more selective. And the inflation concerns, the geopolitical concerns, all add to that. Our clients are grinding their way through those uncertainties but we haven't yet had the clearing event you've had traditionally at the beginning of up cycles.

John Ronan Kennedy

Got it. And then a question for my second, please, on talent solutions operating margin range. I think you've guided to 2% to 4% in 4Q? Can you help us think about what separates the low end from the high end, whether it's the revenue volume and SG&A leverage? Or does GM gross margin mix remain an equally important swing factor?

M. Waddell

Well, we always give a range, right? We focus heavily on the midpoint of that range, but there's no magic. I mean, how impactful will the holidays be that's particularly variable as it relates to perm placement. If you look back over time, the variability in perm placement Q4 because of the holidays is more than the variability in contract because of the holidays. But I wouldn't point to anything specific as to what's going to drive whether it's the midpoint low or high other than this client demand.

Operator

And the next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

Jeffrey Silber

Now that you returned to growth for year-over-year growth for talent solutions and you're guiding for that to happen in Protiviti in the current quarter. Can you remind us what you think the long-term growth rates are for those businesses? I know they're cyclical, but maybe if we're looking peak to peak, any color would be great.

M. Waddell

Well, again, it's a long-term question. We typically think mid-single digits for talent solutions. And for Protiviti, because it has such a small market share relative to the big 4 and there's so much opportunity there, we would we would expect even higher kind of maybe from mid-single to low doubles. But again, those are long-term educated guesses would maybe a way to call it.

Jeffrey Silber

That's what I asked for. So that's great. That's really helpful. And then as a follow-up, you had mentioned in your remarks, you talked about some of these big remediation projects. Can you tell us roughly how long those last? Is that something that might be rolling off in the first quarter?

M. Waddell

Well, the expectation is they last a lot longer than 1 quarter. I think if you look back, Protiviti has had some of those that have lasted years. Now remember, these aren't brand-new consent orders or enforcement actions. These are -- the regulators come in seeing what's been done so far and says, that's not enough. And so it's not a brand-new start, but the point is these clearly have legs, and they're expected to at a minimum to have multiple quarter legs.

But it depends on the client, it depends on how aggressive they are. It depends on their internal resources, their willingness to use external resources. There are a lot of variables, but it's not a quick in and out process to say the least.

Operator

And the next question will come from Tobey Sommer with Truist.

Tobey Sommer

I wanted to ask a question about your thoughts about the seasonality of profit impacts with tax and operating income, et cetera, margin in 1Q. What's the implied EPS impact at the bottom line from those factors?

M. Waddell

I'm not sure for this purpose, we've separated them and converted on to EPS. We basically said collectively at the pretax operating margin line, they typically cause a 1% to 2% pretax operating income impact. I guess, we could do the math and convert that to EPS. But again, it's orders of magnitude, that's what we're talking. The tax rate in the first quarter is all over the place because of stock compensation.

And the issue is typically at what price we're compensation grants made to employees versus when they vest, what tax deduction do you get for those and the differential positive or negative impacts your tax rate? And so that's why that tax rate in the first quarter is particularly volatile. I think last year, it was over 50%. The year before that, it was 20% and that's heavily impacted by stock prices.

Tobey Sommer

Makes sense. I wanted to ask about the opportunity for you to leverage talent solutions with the areas that are growing in Protiviti? Is the current mix of demand sufficient, so that your -- you do have opportunities for the 2 businesses to work together and sort of maximize your revenue and profit from those in -- and maybe could you refresh us on what areas of Protiviti should there be an increase in demand would be the sort of optimal ones

[Audio Gap]

M. Waddell

Are the risk and regulatory, in this case, anti-money-laundering projects that are very large and they're very contract. And having access to those contractors and to be able to scale as quickly as we can scale for our clients is unquestionably a competitive advantage. And so risk and compliance, that practice has always been very contractor-friendly. And it's loved by the enterprise as a whole, as I said earlier, because of the involvement of contractors.

Technology consulting which is taking advantage of the modernization, AI adjacent AI getting ready. That's also an area for contractors and even internal audit. Internal audit is an opportunity where Protiviti uses contractors as well. And so while it took us a while to get the collaboration we now have with the success we've enjoyed with contractor uses, it's unquestionably now at a competitive advantage. And these newer projects that we talk about today we're scaling significantly and quickly in a way it's hard for competitors to do. And that. wonderful thing.

Operator

And our next question comes from Bruna Warnick with UBS.

Unknown Analyst

This is Bruno for Kevin Mackay. Congrats on the results. Can you please confirm whether there was any benefit on the Q4 PA guide from the last quarter restructuring?

M. Waddell

Well, to the extent we took cost out of the business, those certainly accrue to the fourth quarter as well. And my recollection is, and correct me in the room, if I remember wrong, it was about $11 million a quarter in benefit from payroll savings alone, which clearly benefits the fourth quarter.

Operator

And the next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

Stephanie Benjamin Moore

I wanted to touch on your AI investments. I know that you implemented a lot of investments over the last 12 months or so. Could you talk a bit about what you have seen thus far in terms of fill rate, increased productivity at the individual level. And as we think about an up cycle, what does this mean in terms of your own head count with some of these tools?

M. Waddell

I'd say that initially, our tools are more focused on client and candidate experience than they are internal recruiter productivity and not that we're not getting any, but we're focused on improving matching and we've spent a lot of money improving our matching algorithms, including upgrading them to the larger to the latest large language models. On the client side, we've spent a lot of money in AI, trying to have more of an intelligent pipeline approach to which clients we reach out to and why.

And it's kind of like the Amazon, if you like this, then you'll like that. And so for our people, if we're doing with business with this client, this client has this kind of profile. Here are other companies with a similar profile. Here's new stories and other information that we have access to about those companies. And further, do we have any activity whatsoever across our organization, all of which give us a reason to call and have something to talk about.

And so again, I would say, rather than focus first on cost savings and productivity, it's more around expanding market, expanding access to clients' access to candidates. Now having said that, particularly in the case of prioritizing leads, that definitely has had a productivity improving quality for our people. But as quickly as I say that, I think many have learned and we would concur that translating individual productivity to organizational productivity.

There's a lot of slip between cup and lip when you're trying to look at your organizational savings versus taking individual savings you might get in a given location and extrapolate that to everybody that works for you. And so we feel good about our investments we're focused on client and Canada experience first. We're not ignoring that their productivity gains for our people, and we're getting some, but we're more focused on client and Canada experience.

Stephanie Benjamin Moore

Understood. And then maybe just for a follow-up, and maybe I just may be misunderstood what your comment. But -- maybe just talk a little bit about, as you think about focusing on roles in different end markets or different segments? And maybe talk about how that has changed as we think about this cycle versus prior cycles. And if there are some targeted verticals that you're now focused on versus historically?

M. Waddell

I would say from a vertical point of view, probably the biggest change is in technology. And historically, our SMB clients, the demand was for help desk PC technicians very operational-driven roles. And as technologies migrated over the years such that even smaller businesses have tech development requirements that historically they didn't have. Plus, as we focused more and more on midsize, mid-cap companies as it relates to technology, our mix of technology to the total, and I haven't looked at it in a while, but if you take a 10-year view, my guess is you would see technology is a much larger portion of the total today than it was 10 years ago. But that's in part because of the demand for our core SMB base has gravitated toward tech development because of how technology has changed.

That was our last question. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. If you missed any part of the call, it will be archived in audio format in the Investor Center of Robert Half's website at roberthalf.com. You can also walk into the conference call replay. Details are contained in the company's press release issued earlier today.

原文链接