格林布里尔 (GBX) 2026财年第四季度业绩电话会：2027财年营收指引lg...

尽管铁路货车需求走弱且客户投资决策推迟，Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX) 在2026财年结束时仍保持了良好的利润率韧性。第四季度订单有所改善，在手订单环比增长，管理层预计2027财年营业收入和经营盈利能力将有所提升。

核心要点

• 2026财年营业收入为25亿美元，综合毛利率为13.6%，核心每股收益为$2.60，核心EBITDA达到3亿美元。
• 第四季度营业收入环比增长约3%至5.91亿美元。列报每股收益为$0.27，扣除设施相关的优化合理化成本后，核心每股收益为$0.39。
• Greenbrier第四季度获得3,400辆铁路货车订单，总价值约6亿美元，订单出货比接近1。积压订单环比增加至14,000辆，价值21亿美元。
• 自有租赁车队规模增长约23%至21,000辆，出租率达98%。2026财年经常性收入增长55%至1.75亿美元。
• 展望2027财年，管理层给出的营业收入指引为28亿至32亿美元，营业利润率为7%至7.5%，每股收益为$2.75至$3.75。
• 管理层预计，在专用货车、生产固定成本吸收改善以及租赁与车队管理业务增长的支持下，2027财年的经营活动将偏向下半年。

关键财务数据

截至本财年末，Greenbrier在2028年之前均无重大债务到期。约85%的债务为固定利率，加权平均利率略高于4%。

业务与经营表现

第四季度商业活动出现实质性改善。3,400辆货车的订单量构成了Greenbrier全年最高的单季度订单价值。全年订单总量达12,200辆，总价值19亿美元，其中租赁发起约占订单的40%。

管理层表示，大多数货车类别的客户询盘均有所增加。铁路货运量增长、强劲的多式联运活动、高企的燃料价格以及北美铁路货车保有量减少被列为支撑因素。铁路货车闲置封存量连续四个月下降，创下四年多来的最低水平。

租赁与车队管理业务实现了强劲增长。Greenbrier主要通过二级市场收购，为其自有车队增加了约4,000辆货车。租约续签费率仍大幅高于到期费率，而出租率保持在98%。

制造产量和员工人数进行了相应调整以匹配需求。公司继续投资于零部件自制以降低成本，并完成了专门用于支持2027财年下半年业绩的专用货车的工程研发工作。Greenbrier还在2026财年完成了约2,200辆货车的计划内修缮改造工作；这些车辆不包含在列报的订单、积压订单和交付量中。

欧洲市场需求依旧疲软。管理层表示，预计该地区货运车皮交付量在2026年将保持在10,000辆以下，而两年前接近14,000辆，2027年的前景与此类似。在巴西，受出口订单、优化的产品组合和制造效率的支撑，Greenbrier-Maxion在该季度交付了超过400辆货车。

管理层业绩指引

计划中净资本支出的约70%将用于支持租赁车队增长。管理层预计，在2027财年期间，自有车队规模将达到约22,000至23,000辆货车。

公司预计2027财年下半年的交付量和盈利质量将强于上半年。管理层将较宽的每股收益指引区间归因于客户询盘何时转化为订单和交付的不确定性，以及预期行业复苏的时点。

Greenbrier将不再提供公司特定的交付量指引。管理层表示，交付量对其财务表现的代表性已有所降低，因为公司既可以出售新造货车，也可以留作租赁，同时制造业务收入还包括维护、修缮和改造工作。

风险与关注要点

• 客户决策时点：地缘政治不确定性、加征关税及贸易政策变化，以及较高的利息成本导致客户在2026财年推迟了投资决策。
• 贸易争端：涉及罐车的反倾销和反补贴税诉讼以及另一项铁路货车车钩事项正在带来不确定性。管理层表示，在情况更加明朗之前，罐车订单可能会继续受到制约。
• 生产固定成本吸收：制造产量的下降造成了第四季度的运营效率低下。2027财年的改善部分取决于下半年更高的产量和更好的固定成本吸收。
• 欧洲疲软：货运车皮需求持续低迷，需要继续进行产能和成本调整。
• 租赁车队维护：二级市场收购在短期内可能带来更高的维护和重新认证费用，从而导致租赁毛利率出现季度波动。

分析师问答要点

管理层表示，2027财年的上行与下行空间将主要取决于订单转化、交付时点、产品组合和制造摊销。预计专用货车将享有良好的定价和利润率，而多式联运需求的改善可能支持生产线的进一步扩产。

公司在第四季度计入了400万美元设施相关的优化合理化成本。管理层表示，该笔费用的大部分与退出奥马哈的一处维修设施有关，该设施已出售给另一家运营商。

随着近期收购货车的维护费用有所回落，管理层预计租赁毛利率将回归正常水平。管理层指出典型区间在50%中段至60%低段，同时指出车队车龄、收购和维护时点可能会带来波动。

针对可能征收的罐车关税，管理层表示成本增加可能会推高行业定价并转嫁给客户。公司还就车钩案向美国国际贸易法院提出上诉。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Greenbrier Companies Fourth Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions] At the request of the Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Travis Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

Travis Williams

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter fiscal 2026 conference call. Today, I'm joined by Lorie Tekorius, Greenbrier's CEO and President; Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and President of the Americas; and Michael Donfris, Senior Vice President and CFO. Following their prepared remarks today, we will open the call for questions.

Our earnings release and supplemental slide presentation can be found on the IR section of our website. Matters discussed on today's conference call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Throughout our discussion today, we will describe some of the important factors that could cause Greenbrier's actual results in 2026 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of Greenbrier.

With that, I'll turn it over to Lorie.

Lorie Leeson

Thank you, Travis, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Fiscal 2026 was a year marked by significant macroeconomic factors, including geopolitical uncertainties, for shifting tariff and trade policies and higher interest costs, leading many of our customers to extend the timing of investment decisions in long-lived freight railcars.

In that environment, Greenbrier delivered 15,400 railcars generated revenue of $2.5 billion and earned core earnings per share of $2.60 with aggregate gross margin of 13.6%. While these results were below what we expected at the start of the year and fourth quarter, given the market conditions, our performance remained quite resilient. The last period of similarly low industry activity was 4 years ago during our fiscal 2022. Comparing fiscal '26 to '22 and Greenbrier delivered about 4,500 fewer units that delivered aggregate gross margin 330 basis points higher.

Core EBITDA was 30% higher and core net earnings were 76% higher. The changes that we've made over the last several years to our manufacturing footprint, our cost structure and our lease strategy have raised gray bars performance at a low point in our cycle. We remain focused on actively managing the business to ensure stronger through-cycle performance.

Shifting over to manufacturing, we adjusted production rates at head count to match demand while continuing to complete new railcar designs for customers. Our insourcing investments to produce key components continue to lower costs across our North American network. In Europe, market conditions remain soft, and we continue to align our footprint and cost structure with demand as we drive for improved operational efficiency. Our leasing and fleet management team had a strong year.

During fiscal 2016, we grew our owned lease fleet to approximately 21,000 railcars, and with high fleet utilization and stable lease renewals, this business continues to deliver strong performance. A larger fleet adds recurring revenue opportunities for Green bar that make us less dependent on new railcar demand. Now I'd like to take a minute to discuss our trade policy continues to affect our industry, particularly for tank cars. Earlier this month, our competitor filed petitions seeking duties on certain tank cars. And in September, U.S. Customs and Border Protection affirmed its determination regarding certain freight rail couplers on finished railcars.

We are vigorously defending our position in both of these matters, including appealing to the freight rail appealing the freight rail coupler case to the core of international trade. On the tank car matter, perfectly clear, we proudly built tank cars in Arkansas today and employ more than 2,000 individuals in the United States, including our amazing teams of engineers and procurement professionals. The U.S. MCA continues to benefit most of our products and will work with policymakers to ensure greater understanding and reestablish consistent trade treatment of railcars in the North American market.

We're starting to see customer interest that was initially stymied beginning to return. Customer inquiries have increased across most railcar types supported by growth in rail traffic and the cost advantages of freight movement by rail compared to trucks, particularly at current fuel prices. Brian will provide more detail on the market and our commercial activity in just a few minutes. I did want to mention that our balance sheet continues to support our leasing growth strategy, and we ended the year with liquidity of nearly $1 billion, and Michael will dive into the capital allocation details in his remarks.

As I reflect on the long-term targets we established in our April 2023 Investor Day. I'm pleased with the progress we've made. We are on track to double recurring revenue within 5 years, growing 55% to $175 million in fiscal '26. Our aggregate gross margin reached the mid-teens in fiscal '24 and '25 and remained solid at 13.6% in fiscal '26, and while ROIC fell below our targeted range in 2026, reflecting challenging manufacturing conditions, coupled with significant investment in our growing lease fleet. It's actually averaged approximately 9% over the last 3 years.

These results demonstrate the resilience of our business model and the benefits of our strategic transformation positioning Greenbrier for stronger returns as market conditions improve. Looking ahead, our priorities remain: employee safety, operational execution, cost discipline, strategic growth of the lease fleet and improved through-cycle performance.

Finally, before I turn the call over to Brian, I want to say a few words about our new Board member, Manny Perlman, who officially joins the Board tomorrow. Manny brings extensive experience in investment management and capital markets as well as deep financial expertise. We look forward to benefiting from his perspective as we continue to execute our strategy and drive shareholder value.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

Brian Comstock

Thanks, Lorie, and good afternoon, everyone. During the fourth quarter, commercial activity took a meaningful step forward. We received orders for 3,400 railcars valued at approximately $600 million, our highest order value of the year, spanning a range of railcar types and end markets. These orders resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of nearly 1, the highest we've seen since Q3 fiscal 2024. For the full year, orders totaled 12,200 railcars valued at $1.9 billion. With many customers deferring purchasing decisions this year, I'm extremely proud of how our commercial team continued to win business.

Greenbrier's backlog increased to 14,000 railcars valued at $2.1 billion, the first sequential increase since fiscal 2024, with deliveries extending into fiscal 2020. We Lease originations represented about 40% of orders for the year, reflecting the value of an integrated commercial model that offers customers both direct sales and leasing solutions. As a reminder, programmatic railcar restoration work is excluded from our orders, backlog and deliveries. In fiscal '26, we performed this work on approximately 2,200 railcars, making Greenbrier a clear market leader.

Looking at the broader market, conditions are becoming more constructive. Rail traffic has grown across a broad range of commodities this year, and elevated fuel prices have improved rail's cost competitiveness relative to trucking. Recent operating results from the Class I railroads provide encouraging signs for the broader rail freight market. Several major railroads reported solid volume growth in the third quarter, while intermodal traffic has been particularly strong, reaching record levels and posting double-digit year-over-year growth in recent weeks.

At the same time, railcar scrapping has outpaced new builds in North America over the past 2 years, reducing overall fleet size. Railcars and storage have fallen for 4 consecutive months and now are at the lowest levels in over 4 years. We believe these trends point to strengthening underlying freight demand and support a more constructive outlook for railcar manufacturing as customer confidence and capital investment recover. Additionally, tighter fleet supply supports improved lease rates and secondary market values and increases demand for railcar conversions, tank requalifications and rejacking as well as routine maintenance.

FTR projects North American deliveries of $23,000 in 2026, growing to 31,400 in 2027. The an increase of 37%, driven mostly by replacement demand. Our fiscal '27 straddles these periods and based on industry order levels observed over the past few quarters, we expect deliveries to be stronger and back half weighted. These dynamics are creating momentum for our commercial activity. Over the past several weeks, inquiries have increased across railcar types, and we are converting more of them into orders. The tariff and trade matters Lorie discussed are weighing on tank car demand. but we expect orders to resume as greater certainty emerges.

Our Leasing & Fleet management business benefits directly from these fundamentals and delivered an outstanding year. We grew the old lease fleet by roughly 4,000 railcars or 23% to approximately 21,000 railcar fleet, primarily through disciplined secondary market acquisitions while maintaining utilization at 98%. Renewal rates remained well above expiring rates and recurring revenue reached $175 million for a year up from $113 million when we established our goal of doubling recurring revenue.

Turning to manufacturing. We optimized production rates in the fourth quarter to align with demand and adjusted head count accordingly. Our teams design and produce several new railcar types, which will benefit and support our back half forecast. Our insourcing investments continue to lower costs across our North American network and maintenance services, wheel shipments exceeded our expectations with strong forward demand.

Outside North America, demand in Europe remains muted. Two years ago, freight wagon deliveries in the region were nearly 14,000 units. The industry will deliver fewer than 10,000 in 2026, and the 2027 outlook is similar. Our lease syndication capabilities have been important in supporting our European backlog while large operating lessors have limited their purchases and we continue to align our footprint and cost structure in the region with demand. In Brazil, Greenbrier-Maxion delivered another strong quarter with more than 400 railcar deliveries, including export orders, supported by a favorable product mix and continued manufacturing efficiency.

Across Greenbrier's businesses, our capital markets team played an important role this year. Its syndication and secondary market activity generated liquidity and supported the growth of our lease fleet and expanded our relationship with investors and operating lessors. In summary, fourth quarter orders and backlog improved. Our lease fleet grew significantly, and we kept the production aligned with demand. We remain focused on order quality, disciplined fleet growth and operating efficiency and we enter fiscal '27 encouraged by the activity we are seeing.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

Michael Donfris

Thanks, Brian, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the quarter was $591 million, up approximately 3% sequentially, primarily driven by growth of our lease fleet and favorable mix in manufacturing. Aggregate gross margin was 13.5%, driven by the timing of syndication activity and operational inefficiencies resulting from lower production volumes.

Earnings from operations were $26 million or 4.3% of revenue. That included $4 million in facility-related rationalization costs for the quarter. We continue to evaluate and optimize our footprint to align capacity with demand. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was approximately 6.5% and that reflects the mix of income across jurisdictions where we operate, along with the impact of foreign currency.

Earnings per share were $0.27, excluding approximately $0.12 per share of facility-related rationalization costs for earnings per share were $0.39, while core EBITDA was $72 million or 12% of revenue. For the full year, fiscal 2026 revenue was $2.5 billion, and aggregate gross margin was 13.6%, reflecting continued cost discipline and the contribution from leasing and fleet management. Diluted earnings per share were $2.49 and core earnings per share were $2.60. Core EBITDA was $300 million or 12% of revenue.

Now turning to the balance sheet. Greenbrier ended 2026 with total liquidity of $962 million, consisting of $235 million in cash and $727 million in available borrowing capacity. Our debt maturity profile is well laddered with no significant maturities until 2028. In addition, at fiscal year-end, approximately 85% of our debt was fixed with a weighted average interest rate of just over 4%.

Operating cash flow for the quarter -- for the fourth quarter was approximately $32 million. We maintained strong liquidity throughout the year and continue to invest in our lease fleet, supporting recurring revenue growth and long-term earnings potential. Our capital deployment reflects the flexibility of Greenbrier's integrated business model. The timing and mix of railcar sales, leasing and fleet investments can influence reported deliveries, revenue, capital expenditures and cash flow from quarter-to-quarter. Ultimately, our decisions are guided by the returns we expect to generate and the long-term value of the assets rather than an individual operating metric. This flexibility is particularly important as we continue to grow leasing and fleet management. We also remain committed to returning capital to shareholders.

During the year, we raised our quarterly dividend by 6% and repurchased 13 million of our shares. Our Board recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share, marking our 50th consecutive quarterly dividend. We remain committed to balancing investments in the business with shareholder returns while maintaining financial flexibility.

Before reviewing our fiscal 2027 guidance, I want to highlight a change to our annual outlook. As our lease fleet grows, company-specific deliveries have become less indicative of our financial performance, reflecting our flexibility to sell production or retain it for leasing. Additionally, manufacturing segment revenues includes maintenance, repair and programmatic railcar restorations, which are not captured in delivery volumes. Going forward, we will provide an outlook for North American industry deliveries rather than company-specific deliveries, better reflecting our evolving business model and aligning with industry practices.

For fiscal 2027, we anticipate North American industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 railcars, total revenue between $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion, with operating margin ranging from 7% to 7.5%. We expect earnings per share to be between $2.75 and $3.75. Total capital expenditures net of proceeds from equipment sales are projected to range from $225 million to $275 million with approximately 70% allocated towards growth of the lease fleet.

To provide some additional context around our outlook, we expect Leasing & Fleet management revenue to grow 12% to 15%. Manufacturing gross margin in the low double digits and aggregate gross margin in the 14% to 15% range. You can find additional modeling assumptions in the fourth quarter earnings slides on our website.

In summary, we continue to make progress strengthening Greenbrier financial fundament and expanding our recurring revenue platform as we entered fiscal 2027, our priorities remain focused on managing costs, maintaining financial flexibility and deploying capital with discipline. We believe these actions position Greenbrier to deliver attractive through-cycle returns and create long-term shareholder value.

Before we open it up to questions, I will turn it over to Lorie to share a few final thoughts.

Lorie Leeson

Thank you, Michael. And since this will be my final earnings call as CEO, I wanted to express my sincere appreciation to the entire Greenbrier team. It has been a true privilege to work alongside so many talented and dedicated individuals. Together, we've navigated challenges, celebrated successes and strengthen Greenbrier's position as an industry leader. I'm incredibly proud of what we've accomplished and confident in the company's future. Brian and the leadership team are well positioned to build on this foundation and lead Greenbrier into its next chapter.

I want to especially thank our employees for their hard work and dedication during a demanding year, and our customers, shareholders, Board of Directors and the broader investment community for the continued trust engagement and support. It has truly been an honor to lead Greenbrier and I look forward to the company's continued success.

And with that, we'll open it up to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

分析师问答

Ken Hoexter

Lorie, great working with you over all these years from all your different roles. So I appreciate the help and discussions along the way and best of luck in your next endeavor.

Lorie Leeson

Thank you.

Ken Hoexter

I guess I'll start off with maybe, I don't know if Michael or Lorie, whoever wants to jump in, but your range the $275,375, right, so it's a dollar wide. Maybe talk a bit about your upside downside. Is that just the same as your top of your goal revenue in $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion? Is there anything more in there in terms of what you want to highlight I don't know if you want to start off with the midpoint and go risk to the upside, downside?

And then just one 1 clarification while I have you, is you talked about reducing costs. What did you do? Did you shut a facility down? Or is that just getting rid of I don't know, line of workers or a shift?

Lorie Leeson

Well, so I'll take the last question first because that's kind of how my brain works. I can only remember so much at one point in time, maybe that's why retire. But we've been -- through this team has been through a number of ups and downs in our industry. And so yes, part of it is adjusting our workforce to match where demand is. We do that in a very respectful way with our workforce so that we can bring them back as demand improves.

The other thing that we're constantly doing is trying to see are there areas where we can refine how we're serving our customers. So whether that's our leasing customers, our management services customers, all of those things, how can we do that in a more efficient way, oftentimes, that's leveraging technology. But we've learned to just to be on that ever-continuing path. And I'd say, yes, we have closed a number of facilities over the last few years going back, I guess, it's probably been 3 years ago now when we sold our Gunderson facility here in Portland, where I'm very proud to say it's continuing to operate under the Gunderson name but doing business in a private way.

So yes, we've been looking at that footprint and trying to reduce costs where it does it make sense in the existing portfolio of Greenbrier and as we think through where are our investments returning value to our shareholders.

Michael Donfris

Yes. And I'll take the guidance question, Ken. As we think about the fiscal year, that range reflects just some of the uncertainty about customer inquiries, when they'll convert to orders and deliveries. And then just the industry forecast, as you know, was a pretty nice ramp from where 2026 is. And as we look across some of the things that we're focused on, as Lorie mentioned, we're very much looking at different cost opportunities, and as we invested in in-sourcing over the last few years, as we grow our volume, we can continue to take costs down with that in-sourcing investment.

In addition, we expect deliveries to be a little bit back half loaded in 2027, and we expect to see some of the absorption benefits that we'll have in additional production and additional volume. And the other part of it, we'll see the leasing and fleet management business grow and that will drive our aggregate gross margin, which is in that range as well. And then we continue to control SG&A. We continue to look for ways to focus on that as well.

Does that help, Ken?

Ken Hoexter

It does. On the guidance outlook, I guess if I could just get a follow-up, Lorie, on the closing facilities. Is there anything like entire operation in Mexico or the joint venture or in Arkansas, did you close any complete facility? Or is this just, again, like a line or what have you?

Lorie Leeson

Are you talking about in our fourth quarter, Ken?

Ken Hoexter

Yes, yes, I'm talking about the charge you take you said you...

Lorie Leeson

I apologize. I apologize. So the bulk of that was we exited our Omaha facility where we doing maintenance and repair work. So we did sell that to another party who is continuing to operate the business. We also had a small gain associated with exiting a long-time dormant joint venture that we have with Amsted and Ohio Castings, both to as Ohio I'm sorry, Omaha.

Ken Hoexter

And then I guess my last one, if I can think 1 more in, is pricing. Are you assuming -- I guess, just looking at your net orders, and I'm trying to gauge since you're switching to an industry number versus your own target and what that might mean for you. But are you -- given your focus more on specialized equipment or increasing railcar demand overall or tank cars, is there an assumption here of an accelerating revenue per car? Or maybe you want to talk about pricing in the marketplace a bit?

Brian Comstock

Ken, it's Brian. Yes, I think I can take that. I think it's a little bit of everything that you talked about. There's a number of specialty cars out there that we've really been focused on, and that's a lot of the engineering we did early on. And A significant part of that production does begin in the back half of the year. Pricing on that is good pricing and margins, we have nice margins associated. So that's kind of part 1.

Part 2 is we're seeing a lot of interest on the intermodal side. Intermodal has been dormant for a long period of time. You guys are seeing the railroads report out, and you're seeing TTX and others start to look pretty seriously. And so we see some line ramp-ups coming in as well. And then just generally, as the market recovers you start to see better pricing discipline across the board. So it's a combination of all 3.

Operator

The next question is from Andrzej Tomczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Appreciate it. Curious, maybe if we could just first touch on the leasing margin in the fourth quarter. I think it was 5% I think that was a little lower than we were expecting down a couple of hundred basis points sequentially. Just kind of curious, is that a reflection of you building the fleet or maybe more maintenance costs in the near term? I know the lower utilization sort of sequentially that might be driving it as well? And then just going forward, how do we think about the overall gross profit margin level for leasing into 2027? And relative to sort of this recent high 50s, low 60% level?

Brian Comstock

Yes, Andre, it's Brian. So it's really -- as you guys will remember from our last call, we added a number of units in Q3 that then began to go on lease in Q4. So there's some acquisition timing as cars were coming into the fleet, and that's the timing of maintenance, quite frankly. There's a number of programs around requalification and things that had to get done some catch-up work. On a go-forward basis, we see it returning to normal levels. So you'll see it back up.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Got it. And in terms of just if I could follow up there. When you say normal levels is I think at 25% in fiscal '25, you guys did closer to 67%. so should we be thinking sort of between 60% and 67% on a full year basis for 2027, just on a clarification point.

Lorie Leeson

I would say probably it's the mid-50s to low 60s is where we would try to see it. And I think there's oftentimes different things that are going on in particular periods that might have it impact. But I do think, as you're seeing us continue to stay focused on growing our own lease fleet, either from what we're originating and building in our shops or the secondary market transactions, some of the secondary market transactions were adding older cars, as Brian said, that have a little bit more maintenance on them. So that's where you're going to see a little bit of that variability. But we also have a great team that's evaluating these secondary market transactions.

So we're not just buying cars because we want to grow the fleet. We're buying cars that are good return on the investment that we're making, and then we've got a great team that manages how we're keeping those cars maintained.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Understood. Appreciate it. Maybe just on the leasing as well. What do you expect the leasing fleet count to end in 2027? I mean, obviously, you've been growing that pretty quickly. It was 17,000 units in; 25 -- or '26 and then up here at 21,000 in 2026, call it, 20% to 25% growth year-over-year. How are you expecting that level of growth sort of to trend here into 2027 on the lease fleet?

Michael Donfris

Right? Right. And I'll take that, Andrzej. As we look at 2027, there's certainly a very strong market in the secondary market, but we project that it's going to grow to somewhere between 22,000 cars and 23,000 cars as we look across the year.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Great. Maybe just shifting then to manufacturing here. So the guide for the industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 during your fiscal year. Could you just help frame that up a little bit for you guys? I think if your share of industry delivery is sort of, and correct me if I'm wrong, maybe 30% to 40% I think that could still imply deliveries, depending on what you do in Europe could be down year-over-year if I have that math right this year. And I'm just curious if that's true, are we expecting more of that pressure to be front half loaded and then maybe you're expecting year-over-year improvements on a volume basis here in the back half?

Michael Donfris

Yes. And I think that you're thinking about it in a correct way in terms of the strength potentially more in the back half of 2027, fiscal 2027. As we look at year-over-year, we've got a kind of guide range that's kind of around where fiscal 2026 was that we expect to do a little bit better than 2026 in terms of deliveries.

Lorie Leeson

And maybe I'll just add on to that, part of what Brian was talking about earlier is the mix of cars that we're delivering. So these specialized railcars that we're building they only count as one, but they can be a lot more impactful when it comes to the overhead absorption and the capacity that it consumes within our fleet. And then further, as a reminder as to why we are stepping back from giving our specific delivery guidance is because while we've brought a great commercial team that's originating both direct sales and lease originations, those lease originations, some of them will keep on our balance sheet. And therefore, not all of that production shows up in deliveries.

And then we have been focused for the last several years on how can we do things differently within our production facilities to make certain that they're optimized and creating a return. So that's the, I love this word, programmatic railcar restorations that don't show up in deliveries. This is wheel activity, it's maintenance activity. We have a number of other things that are captured within manufacturing revenue that makes the correlation with Greenbrier deliveries not be as tight as we would like. So that's why we've changed that guidance.

Brian Comstock

Yes. And it's Brian, Andre. I'll just put an exclamation point on what Lorie said, it's the quality of the earnings in the back half versus the front half. So it's less about volume and more about the quality of mix.

Travis Williams

That's -- Andrzej, this is Travis. We can follow up and create a detail offline. But I would say, just to clarify, our industry forecast of 26,000 to 28,000 units, would represent growth over what we saw in our fiscal 2020 in terms of an industry. So just to clarify on that piece, and it is back-half weighted. So -- but we can get into some detail later.

Andrzej Tomczyk

That's very helpful. And maybe just for me to close off some broader thoughts here on the -- digging in a little bit more on the current state of the antidumping and the countervailing duty investigations that you guys kind of talked about in the opening script. Maybe just curious, like if -- one, if you think that's potentiality that, that could actually go through how you're thinking about that? And if prices ultimately have to go up for railcars on the back of that, maybe how are you and your customers speaking about the potential future impacts to the fleet strategy and maybe whether Greenbrier may have to pass on those higher input costs over time?

Lorie Leeson

So if I could, I'll break it into 2 pieces, right? So there's the antidumping countervailing duties on couplers. Couplers are a smaller component of an overall new railcar. I would not expect duties on those couplers to have a significant impact on demand. The issue is how a railcar manufacturer separates the coupler on a brand-new railcar as it's coming across the border from the rest of the railcar. In my mind, I think about this is like how would you put a duty on the steering wheel on a passenger car separate from a duty on the overall car. So -- and some of that is just how does that -- how do the mechanics of that work because new railcars have been crossing our northern and southern borders for decades without being treated as consumables. So that's on couplers.

On the tank cars, our customers are with us on tank cars and part of the government's role is to talk to them. And I think that they're going to be really vocal about whether or not Greenbrier and others that build take cars in Mexico have been doing untoward activities when we bring these cars into the United States. I'll probably get the stink eye from someone in the room, but I will say that is not our intent, and I don't think that, that's reflected in the gross margins that our teams have been putting up. We are focused on making certain that our products are priced consistent with the market. We don't -- if anything, we prefer to get very robust pricing, not dump pricing in order to take market share.

Brian Comstock

Yes. And to be clear, this is Brian -- just to put a finer point again on it is this is an industry issue. It's not a Greenbrier issue. So if it does go through, then the price of tank cars go up. And unfortunately, that price gets passed through to our customers, which is not what we want to do but it is what one participant has put upon the industry. And so the industry will deal with it, and it will raise prices, but it won't impact our financial performance or it should long term.

Andrzej Tomczyk

I appreciate the thoughts there. Just to close off 2 quick ones for me. Just want to clarify, are you -- have you paid tariffs on tank cars at all? And then -- and then just secondly, I wanted to also express Lorie, it's been a pleasure working with you and wish you all the best going forward. Maybe just one for Brian off the back of that as you take the home in early 2027? Are there specific areas of the strategy where you see a need for pivot or acceleration in either direction?

Lorie Leeson

Thank you for the nice words. It's been nice getting to know you as well. I'll take the tariff. We're continuing to work with CBP on how to navigate the system to do what they're asking us to do. Right now, the system is not set up to do that, but we continue to work very, very closely with that. And I look forward to hearing what Brian has...

Brian Comstock

No. Look, Lorie and I have worked together for 30 years. And what's great about our relationship is that we've developed a lot of the strategies together while she's led the initiatives. So these are things that I'm deeply rooted in as what we've progressed in the company. What you'll see for me is a continuation of what Lorie fundamentally has put in place. I think maybe with a newfound urgency around some of the business unit operations and their performance, leveling up the expectation from them, along with that, will be some of our costs and overhead structures and continuing to look at how we can improve our cost profile and then really putting and leaning in hard on the leasing growth side of our story so that we can continue to grow that side of the business.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Travis Williams for any closing remarks.

Travis Williams

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your continued interest in Greenbrier. This is the end of our fourth quarter earnings call.

Lorie Leeson

Thanks, everyone.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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