纽柯 (NUE) 2026财年第三季度业绩电话会：出货量创纪录且第四季度展望强劲lg...

纽柯（Nucor）2026财年第三季度业绩电话会议亮点包括：创下三年多来最强的单季业绩、钢厂出货量创历史新高以及下游利润率改善。尽管面临季节性出货压力和更高的投产成本，管理层预计第四季度盈利将与第三季度持平或略高于第三季度。

核心要点

• 纽柯第三季度实现净利润13亿美元，即每股收益5.80美元，EBITDA约为23亿美元。管理层表示，高于预期的钢厂出货量和销售价格使得每股收益比公司业绩指引的中点高出约3.5%。
• 钢厂出货量超过720万吨，连续第三个季度刷新单季历史纪录。纽柯预计2026全年的出货量增长率将接近其5%–10%指引区间的上限。
• 第三季度自由现金流达到16亿美元，年初至今近27亿美元。纽柯在本季度通过股息和股票回购向股东回报了6.29亿美元。
• 钢铁产品部门税前利润环比增加1.12亿美元至4.65亿美元。平均销售价格上升7%，推动该部门的EBITDA利润率扩大了约200个基点。
• 管理层预计第四季度合并盈利将与第三季度持平或略高。定价改善和部门间利润抵消减少预计将弥补季节性出货量下降和成本上升的影响。
• 随着重大项目接近尾声，公司预计2027年的资本支出将有所下降。管理层认为，持久的需求、增长项目的额外贡献以及支持性的联邦政策，将使纽柯在2027年取得更强劲的业绩。

关键财务数据

业务与经营业绩

钢厂部门

由于出货量增长2%且平均销售价格提高（在薄板和型钢产品的带动下），钢厂部门税前利润增至18亿美元。与第二季度的对比在一定程度上受到了上一季度1.30亿美元现金退款（曾降低营业成本）本季不再有的影响。

厚板组再次创下单季出货量纪录。勃兰登堡厂出货约24万吨，约占该业务组出货量的三分之一。棒材组的单季出货量也创下历史新高。

莱克星顿微型钢厂在3月份实现EBITDA扭亏为盈后，产能利用率达到近80%。管理层还提及了金曼、弗罗斯特普鲁夫、斯代利亚以及升级后的坎卡基钢厂的强劲表现。

钢铁产品部门

钢铁产品部门出货量环比增长6%，平均销售价格上涨7%。实现的下游售价开始追赶走高的原材料钢材成本，推动该部门的EBITDA利润率提升了约200个基点。

桁条及楼承板出货量增长了约20%，实际实现价格每吨增加110美元。管理层表示，钢铁产品部门的整体储备订单增长了约25%，定价改善势头延续至2027年。

铁塔与结构件业务的储备订单自2026年初以来已翻倍以上，排期已延伸至2028年初。纽柯预计迪凯特厂将在10月实现EBITDA扭亏为盈，克劳福兹维尔厂已在第三季度实现全负荷生产。布里格姆城厂仍计划在2027年中期达到全负荷生产。

在对印第安纳州和阿拉巴马州设施追加1.65亿美元投资后，管理层将其铁塔与结构件业务的长期年度EBITDA目标从1.50亿美元调高至约2.00亿美元。

增长项目与终端市场

西弗吉尼亚州薄板厂于9月完成了首次出钢，并于10月开始从酸洗线出货卷材。纽柯预计在12月前将其首批卷材送入热轧线、冷轧线和建筑级镀锌线，随后于2027年初提高产量。公司的目标是到2027年底产能利用率达到50%。

位于南卡罗来纳州伯克利的全新汽车级镀锌线已于10月投产。管理层预计其将在2027年第二季度达到50%的产能利用率，并在2027年底前实现全负荷运转，新增年镀锌产能50万吨。

数据中心约占纽柯整体企业储备订单的15%。在型钢产品中，这一比例约为30%–35%。管理层还提及基础设施、制造业回流、工厂建设、公用事业、液化天然气（LNG）接收站、管道和汽车等领域是主要的需求推动力。

关于边境墙项目，纽柯预计仍有约1,400英里的主墙和副墙尚待建造，每英里约需1,500吨钢材。公司预计相关出货将持续贯穿2027年，并延伸至2028年。

管理层业绩指引

• 第四季度合并盈利：预计与2026财年第三季度持平或略高。
• 钢厂部门：预计盈利将保持稳定，因较高的平均售价可弥补季节性较低的销量及走高的成本。
• 钢铁产品部门：预计更高的定价将抵消销量下滑，从而带来稳定的部门盈利。
• 原材料部门：预计盈利将略有下降，主要由于直接还原铁的实现售价有所下降。
• 公司总部及抵消：与第三季度相比，部门间利润抵消额的减少应能降低费用。
• 2026年钢厂出货量：预计增长率将接近公司5%–10%指引区间的上限。
• 2026年资本支出：预计在或略低于最初预估的25亿美元。
• 2027年资本支出：随着重大项目度过建设支出高峰期，预计将进一步下降。
• 西弗吉尼亚州厂投产成本：管理层预计2027年的成本仍将保持在高位，与2026年持平或更高。

风险与关注领域

由于耗材、运费、能源、服务和加班费用上升，第三季度的加工成本有所增加。计划性停产也降低了固定成本的分摊。管理层预计第四季度的加工成本将出现小幅环比增长。

由于财历安排和假期因素，第四季度的有效出货天数比第三季度减少5到6天。几家大型钢厂的计划性停产以及潜在的冬季恶劣天气进一步增加了出货量的不确定性。管理层指出，从第三季度到第四季度历史出货量通常下降约7%，这是一个有参考价值的规划假设。

随着纽柯增加员工数量并为2027年的产能提升做准备，西弗吉尼亚州钢厂的投产支出将上升。公司还警告称，调试如此规模的项目会带来较高的成本。

成品钢材进口量同比下降超过13%，较2024年下降24%，但管理层指出近期进口量有所回升，包括尽管有232条款关税限制，来自韩国的进口量仍出现激增。

分析师问答环节亮点

• 2027年需求：管理层认为需求环境具有广泛的基础，提及数据中心、半导体与科技项目、天然气发电厂、LNG接收站、核电公用事业、医药、造船、国防、家电以及暖通空调（HVAC）。
• 汽车领域扩张：纽柯表示，其能够利用电弧炉技术生产外板级镀锌钢。西弗吉尼亚州代表了其最大的汽车业务增长机遇，随着时间的推移，管理层设想该厂的汽车钢出货量达到约100万吨，其中包含约10万吨外板级汽车钢。
• 薄板合同：纽柯预计进入2027年时，其长期合同占比将略高于历史上的80%–85%水平。管理层表示，由于折扣降低、附加费提高以及提货量波动幅度收紧，合同质量有所提升。固定价格合同约占薄板合同的5%–7%，在公司整体业务中占比为低个位数。
• 数据中心敞口：型钢产品的集中度最高，但管理层也指出商品棒材、桁条及楼承板、金属建筑和其他下游业务同样存在需求。
• 商品棒材与螺纹钢：管理层表示两个市场的出货量均在增长。纽柯灵活的钢厂网络使其能够根据区域需求和利润率，在螺纹钢、普通商品棒材（MBQ）、优质棒材（SBQ）和线材之间切换生产。
• 资本分配：纽柯仍致力于将每年至少40%的净利润回报给股东。管理层表示，多余现金将用于有纪律的增长，或通过股息和股票回购进行回报。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Nucor's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] And today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to introduce Chris Jacobi, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin your call.

Chris Jacobi

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's third quarter earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, President and COO; and Jack Sullivan, CFO. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also here with us today and may participate during the Q&A portion of the call.

Yesterday, we posted our third quarter earnings release and investor presentation on Nucor's IR website. We encourage you to access these materials as we'll cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our safe harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information disclosures along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

So with that, let's turn the call over to Leon.

Leon Topalian

Thanks, Chris. I want to begin by recognizing our 33,000 teammates from making that summer of 2026, our safest summer ever. Summer brings added safety challenges and our team met them with focus and determination that's something to be proud of, and it reflects our commitment to the most important value we have safety. And as we finished the year, let's keep looking out for one another and make sure every one of our team members goes home safely at the end of every shift.

Turning to our third quarter financial results. Nucor delivered its strongest quarter in more than 3 years with approximately $2.3 billion of EBITDA and earnings of $5.80 per share. Jack is going to unpack our results in more detail, but many of the themes we've highlighted throughout the year continued this quarter, strong demand across key end markets, growing contributions from recent investments and federal policies that support a healthy domestic steel sector. And with the capital spending moderating as major projects near completion, that strength is increasingly showing up in Nucor's free cash flow. We also remain committed to meaningful shareholder returns, returning $629 million in dividends and buybacks during the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to nearly $1.4 billion. Operationally, the Nucor team is executing exceptionally well across each of our business segments.

In our steel mills, quarterly shipments exceeded 7.2 million tons, setting another shipment record for the third consecutive quarter. This would not be possible without the investments we've made over the past 6 years, many of which are now online and contributing to our results. For example, the Play Group set another quarterly shipment record, Brandenburg shipped approximately 240,000 tons or roughly 1/3 of the group's total shipments. The team has done an amazing job bringing the mills full capabilities online and advancing customer qualifications. The bar group also set another quarterly shipment record. Our Lexington micro mill has had a very successful ramp-up since coming online last year. The team became EBITDA positive in March and is built on that progress, reaching a utilization rate of nearly 80% in the third quarter, we've also seen very strong results from Kingman, Arizona and our micro mills at Frostproof and Sedalia as well as our upgraded Kankakee mill helped to deliver our best merchant bar quarter in several years.

In Steel Products, we saw a significant improvement in quarterly earnings, higher shipments and a notable inflection in pricing led to margin expansion across most of our major product groups. Joist and deck had a standout quarter with shipments up about 20% and realized pricing increasing by $110 a ton. And the raw materials, our Louisiana DRI plant has begun capturing CO2 emissions for transport and storage through a project with ExxonMobil. The project is designed to capture and store up to 800,000 tons of CO2 annually, supporting our greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals and strengthening Nucor's position as one of the world's cleanest steel producers. Congratulations to our entire team in Louisiana on this achievement.

The strength we are seeing in today's domestic steel market is being driven by healthy economic conditions and broad-based investment across key end markets. Nucor is benefiting from these conditions because trade policy improvements over the past decade have created more level playing field, in particular, vigorous trade law enforcements and strengthening Section 232 measures are allowing us to realize a greater share of the strong demand environment in the U.S. finished steel imports are down more than 13% year-over-year and down 24% compared to 2024. Fair trade support strong markets, unfair trade distorts them. However, import volumes have been increasing in recent months, including a massive surge from South Korea, despite the Section 232 tariffs. From decades of experience fighting for a level playing field, we know we must always stay vigilant. Therefore, we will work closely with the administration to ensure trade measures remain robust and effective. But make no mistake, demand is very healthy. Even as imports have crept higher this year, domestic shipments have risen in each of the past three quarters, strong market fundamentals and favorable trade policies will continue to support a positive outlook for the domestic steel industry.

With that, I'll turn it over to Steve for an update on our growth initiatives and market outlook. Steve?

Stephen Laxton

Thank you, Leon, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We're in the final stages of construction at our new sheet mill project in West Virginia, and we're commissioning equipment across the site. I want to thank the team in West Virginia for their hard work and excellent safety performance throughout the multiyear construction phase. They've kept the project on time and on budget while reaching several important milestones. In September, the melt shop produced its first heat. And in October, we started shipping coils from the pickle line to our downstream new core divisions. And by December, we expect to run our first coils through the hot mill, cold mill and construction-grade galv lines. As we complete commissioning, the team is preparing to ramp production in early 2027, and our priority will be to operate safely and reliably, while steadily increasing production toward our 50% utilization target by the end of 2027.

Our sheet mill network provides an important advantage as production begins. By gradually shifting baseload tons from other Nucor sheet mills to West Virginia, we can provide the new mill a steady base of orders to support a successful ramp through 2027 and '28. As with any project of the scale and complexity, we expect start-up costs to remain elevated in 2027 at levels similar to or higher to those in 2026.

Turning to our Berkeley, South Carolina sheet mill. Our new automotive grade galvanizing line began production early this month. We expect utilization rates for the new galv line to reach 50% in the second quarter of next year, on its way to full run rate by the end of 2027. At full production, this new line will add 500,000 tons of annual galvanizing capacity. Taken together, our investments in West Virginia and South Carolina enhance Nucor's ability to serve the automotive market where we are relatively underweighted today. As both projects ramp and complete customer qualifications, we will build on the strong relationships we already have in place with many of North America's leading automakers, but we are not simply waiting for these investments to ramp. While North American automotive production is essentially unchanged year-to-date, Nucor's flat-rolled shipments to automotive customers are up 4%.

And as we grow our automotive shipments, we're expanding what we can offer with the capabilities we have in place today. Recently, we commercialized exposed-quality galvanized steel for the exterior panel of an SUV platform. We accomplished this using thin-slab casting demonstrating Nucor's innovation in EAF steelmaking. And as new growth projects come online, we'll have even more opportunities to expand our position in the automotive market.

Moving to our Towers and Structures business. We're encouraged by how each of our facilities is progressing and the strength of our customer demand. Our Decatur, Alabama facility is on track to be EBITDA positive this month, while our Crawfordsville, Indiana facility began full production in the third quarter and is expected to follow a similar path toward profitability. Our Brigham City, Utah facility remains on track to reach full production by mid-2027. We are now qualified with more than 30 utilities with additional customer qualifications underway, and we've entered into multiyear agreements with several of the largest utilities in the United States. That momentum is reflected in our order backlog, which has more than doubled since the start of the year and extends into early 2028. Based on the strength of customer demand, we recently announced a combined $165 million of investments to increase the capacity of our Indiana and Alabama facilities by about 50%. As a result, we now expect our long-term annual EBITDA contribution from our Towers and Structures business to reach approximately $200 million, up from the $150 million previously forecast.

Turning to our demand outlook. Nucor continues to expect steel mill shipments growth to finish closer to the higher end of our 5% to 10% range for 2026, supported by several durable underlying drivers. Let me touch on a few of these. First, infrastructure. While the IIJA was passed about 5 years ago, the infrastructure investment activity, [indiscernible] is still accelerating. State level decision-making and permitting have, in many cases, taken years to complete, extending construction activity over a longer period of time. Today, many projects are underway, but new ones are still being approved, and over $135 billion of funding has yet to be spent as of August.

In addition, steel requirements for the border wall are substantial, and stadium construction shows no signs of slowing. Second, reshoring and digital infrastructure. The COVID pandemic highlighted the fragility of our domestic supply chain and underscored the need to manufacture more in the U.S. In support of federal actions on tax, trade and regulatory fronts have helped stimulate considerably higher levels of manufacturing construction. This is broader than the chip fab activity first encouraged by the CHIPS Act and now includes sectors like pharmaceuticals, automotive, appliance and electrical components. And data center construction activity has gone from a small niche to a significant driver of nonresidential building construction activity.

Finally, energy. Rising demand aging infrastructure and the need to strengthen the grid are driving substantial investment in the power sector. Utilities plan to spend nearly $1.4 trillion over the next 5 years with steel intensive investments ranging from generation and substations to transmission upgrades. Beyond power, we're seeing strong demand across the oil and gas sector, including LNG terminals and pipeline construction and growing domestic production of oil country tubular goods. We see these trends as durable, and we believe Nucor is incredibly well positioned with our world-class manufacturing team and broad portfolio to meet the needs of our customers across these diverse applications.

With that, let me turn the call over to Jack. Jack?

Jack Sullivan

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, Nucor generated net earnings of $1.3 billion or $5.80 per share. This exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range by roughly 3.5%, primarily due to higher-than-expected shipments and higher average selling prices in our steel mills segment.

Let me now review our third quarter performance by segment. The steel mills segment generated $1.8 billion of pretax earnings, an increase of $232 million from the prior quarter. As Leon mentioned, we set another quarterly shipment record, with volumes up 2%. Average selling prices rose across the segment led by our sheet and structural groups. These increases were partially offset by higher costs. As a reminder, the second quarter benefited from $130 million in cash refunds that reduced cost of goods sold, and that benefit did not recur in the third quarter.

Turning to Steel Products. We generated pretax earnings of $465 million, an increase of $112 million from the prior quarter. Volumes increased 6% and average selling prices rose 7%. The improvement in pricing was particularly encouraging as realized pricing in our downstream businesses is catching up with the higher steel input costs that compressed margins earlier this year. As a result, the EBITDA margin for our Steel Products segment increased approximately 200 basis points from the second quarter. And in our raw materials segment, we generated pretax earnings of $105 million compared to $146 million in the prior quarter, reflecting lower pricing and shipments. Pre-operating and start-up costs totaled $124 million compared to $120 million in the prior quarter.

Turning to capital allocation and the balance sheet. We generated $1.6 billion of free cash flow in the third quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to nearly $2.7 billion. Cash from operations has grown from $900 million in the first quarter to over $2.2 billion in the third as we benefit from healthy market conditions and growing contributions from our recent investments. At the same time, capital spending is moderating as our major projects near completion. We deployed just under $1.9 billion in CapEx year-to-date, with the majority going towards growth projects. For the full year, we expect our capital expenditures to finish at or slightly below our original $2.5 billion estimate. Our free cash flow supports meaningful returns to shareholders.

During the quarter, we returned $629 million through dividends and share repurchases, up approximately $150 million from the second quarter. Year-to-date, we've returned nearly $1.4 billion or 42% of net earnings. We remain committed to returning at least 40% of net earnings to shareholders on an annual basis. All of this is underpinned by our strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit profile. We ended the quarter with approximately $3.6 billion in cash and liquidity of $4.3 billion. Total debt as a percentage of capital was 23%, and our credit ratings remain the highest of any North American steel producer.

Looking ahead, we expect our CapEx to decline further in 2027, extending the step down from peak spending in '24 and '25. We'll share more detail on our 2027 capital allocation plans on our year-end call in January.

Turning to our fourth quarter outlook. We expect consolidated earnings to be in line with or modestly higher than the third quarter results. In steel mills, we expect stable earnings as higher average pricing across all product groups is offset by seasonally lower volumes and higher costs. The cost increase reflects lower fixed cost absorption and higher start-up spending at West Virginia as we add teammates and prepare to ramp production.

In Steel Products, higher pricing is expected to offset the impact of lower volumes, resulting in stable earnings for the segment. In raw materials, we expect slightly lower earnings, primarily due to lower realized DRI pricing.

Finally, we expect to benefit from lower intersegment profit eliminations that should reduce corporate and elimination expense relative to the third quarter. And as 2026 draws to a close, we're excited about Nucor's earnings prospects for 2027. Healthy durable demand across key end markets another step-up in contributions from new growth projects and supportive federal policy all position us for another strong year. And with the broadest range of capabilities in the North American steel market, we're confident -- the Nucor team will deliver on that opportunity for our customers and shareholders.

And with that, we'd like to hear from you and answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Nick Cash with Goldman Sachs & Co.

分析师问答

Nicklaus Cash

The first question I have is you've been running at record shipment levels this year and suggesting it will be closer the 10% range, driven by strength in demand over the past few quarters as well as backlog visibility. I just wanted to know, as you think in the '27, how much further organic volume growth do you think Nucor's existing system can generate before considering contribution from West Virginia? And then which end markets give you the most confidence in another year of growth.

Leon Topalian

Hi, Nick, it's Leon, I'll kick this off, and I want to begin with something I shared in the opening. Nucor's just come through the safest summer ever. And if we look back at our history, the months of June, July and August have historically been the most dangerous and the most opportunity for injuries across our entire enterprise. Our team set out a very audacious goal to target [ bill ] injuries for those 3 months. And while we didn't meet that, we ended up with the safest three months in the history of Newport and now are putting those efforts towards the safest fall. The thing to really remember in all of that is every one of those numbers that we track has a name, every name as a family and every family deserves to be complete. Our greatest responsibility as leaders in this company is to the men and women of this amazing company of ours. And so thank you, team, for what you do, and how you take care of our customers and for working safe each and every day. And Nick, as you talk, look, as we came off the highs of '21 and '22, '23 was an okay here. '24 and '25 were very tepid. But look, our investment strategies, our capital allocation philosophy has been to invest for the long term. And so over the last 6.5 years, you've seen Nucor deploy about $19 billion worth of capital, half in organic growth and the other half in M&A. And so it's the ultimate strategy of playing where the puck is going to be. Now where it's at understanding our customer demand, understanding the capability sets that are needed by our customers in building and creating those opportunities to win, and that is exactly what you're seeing Nucor do to date, executing on an incredibly strategic plan to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture. And so we've had the best quarter in 3 years. We're on the track to have the safest year in all of our entire history. '26 is shaping up to be the third best financial year in the history of our company, and we fully expect that '27 will be even stronger. But where is that coming from? And the end market probably that gets more attention in the entire economy as data centers. And while that's a major part in some of our product groups, it represents about 15%, 1-5 percent, of our entire backlog and as an enterprise. But it's a strong end market. But -- so as chips and technology and hardware, natural gas power plants, LNG export terminals, nuclear utilities, pharma, heavy equipment is coming back in gangbuster shipbuilding, military and defense spending, appliance and HVAC. And so I would tell you, my 31 years in Nucor, Nick, we are seeing -- I am seeing early the strongest demand environment across the breadth of Nucor's products, coupled that with the investments that we've made in West Virginia, Brandenburg, Lexington, our micromill in Lexington, Kingman, Arizona, Crawfordsville's pole line, Berkeley's galvanizing line and Brandon Bergs plate mill are all now firing where, again, as Steve mentioned just a minute ago, West Virginia will fully commission this year and begin its full ramp in we are at the tip of the spear of the greatest economic growth in our nation, and I couldn't be more optimistic about what 2027 and beyond is going to bring. Finally, I would tell you with the last part of all of that is that CapEx unwinds of our spend into 2027, it skyrockets the free cash flow on top of the margins that we're earning on top of the contributions that the new investments are are already having and will continue to ramp into '27. It means we're fueled for growth -- disciplined growth, just like we have over the last 6 years, that money is not burning a hole in our pocket. And if we don't have a great use for it, you're going to get it back. Over the last 16 years, we've returned nearly $15 billion to our shareholders through dividends or share buybacks, and we will continue to focus on that. However, I can tell you there are massive areas of growth for our company that we're targeting now, mostly in the expand beyond categories. But we are just getting warmed up. I couldn't be more optimistic about 2027 and beyond in the future of Nucor.

Nicklaus Cash

That is all really fantastic color. I really appreciate it. And then just one quick follow-up. I mean you mentioned just on the cost side. costs were a little bit higher than expected. I think Mills margins were a little bit lighter than expected, acknowledging the $130 million tailwind from last quarter. You provide any further color on any inflationary pressures you might be experiencing? I know you mentioned some lower fixed cost absorption, but any other impacts experienced in the quarter? And then for the 4Q guide of flat earnings, can you provide any additional color on how these impacts or how these costs could impact margin trajectory in the year-end?

Jack Sullivan

Yes, Nick. Good morning. This is Jack. You're right. Conversion cost did tick up some in Q3, but I think we need to put a few things into perspective here. Nucor's EBITDA margin expanded to over 20%, and that's our highest level in the past 3 years. So we continue to see margin expansion even with some of that conversion cost per ton creep. But in terms of specifics and where we saw that, I'd point you to certain consumables, freight, certainly energy and just some other services, but keep in mind, when you're running at high utilization rates, particularly in hot demand environments like we're seeing right now, you do tend to see some costs creep up just to keep operations running. Maybe that's overtime pay or some higher energy costs when in softer markets, we may have chosen to to curtail and higher energy cost environments. But -- and you pointed out correctly, we also didn't benefit from the tariff refunds that occurred in Q2. The other thing unique to Q3 when you're comparing it to Q2, we did have more planned outages in the quarter. And of course, that led to some lower fixed cost absorption. So I'd say your last question about looking ahead to Q4, I think you could expect a modest uptick in conversion costs Q-over-Q. And again, we do have some outages in Q4. We've got -- we've pointed to some gradual increase in preoperating start-up costs as we get West Virginia closer to ramp up. And yes, those would be the -- I think those would be the things I'd point to.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

William Peterson

I'd like to unpack the shipment guidance in 4Q. You're still not being towards the high end of the range, which would be like 10% year-on-year growth. But I guess if you ran it through and imply around down 10% quarter-on-quarter, which would be more like 2021, 2022 as compared to the last few years, which were below that in terms of seasonality, like maybe you have two less shipping days. Are you taking account other things like holidays? And maybe you can characterize how much downtime you're expecting? Or just trying to get a sense of candor upside to this number.

Jack Sullivan

Yes. Hi, Bill. It's Jack. All good questions. You're right. We do have two fewer fiscal days in Q4 and compared to Q3, 89 versus 91. But also to your point, there are 4 additional non-shipping days really just due to Q4 holidays when you think of Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, a few days around Christmas eve and New Year's. So in aggregate, you're talking 5 or 6 fewer days of shipping compared to the prior quarter, plus the added risk of some winter weather in certain regions. Q4 planned outages, I just mentioned, some of those outages are at our largest mills, and so planned downtime relative to Q3 actually has a few more days. So keep that in mind, but I think it's also important to recognize we're coming into Q4 off of a record high Q3 shipment quarter. So I think sometimes it's easier to ship through outage season during softer markets, a little bit harder to do so when the mills are already operating at such a high level. There's just less slack in the system. But I think if you look historically, quarterly shipments, Q3 to Q4 have trended down about 7%. And so that may be a useful planning assumption as you're looking to fine-tune your models. I think the silver lining here, though, Bill, is we've guided you to steel mills earnings having relatively flat quarter-over-quarter. And really, that's just for all the obvious reasons, we're going to see some volume softness due to seasonality in the outages, but stronger pricing outlook sort of neutralizes that impact. Rest assured, our goal is to ship every ton possible.

William Peterson

No, that's terrific color. Earlier, I think you said that your data center was something around 15%. I'm not sure if that's a mill statement or a product statement, but I'm trying to get a sense for how big that opportunity I guess is for you, as we think about 2026. And do you expect that to grow? And then the second one you called out was the border wall, and you characterized it tons per mile. I was trying to figure out how much border wall needs to get built, but like to get a sense on how you see the border opportunity this year and also for next year, would you expect that to grow again?

Leon Topalian

Yes, Bill, I'll touch on. You can remember now, I got the second part of your question. The first part was on data centers, right. Look, if we step back, most of the forecast and analysts are talking massive numbers, multitrillion dollars worth of spend over the next 5, 6, 7 years. And so Nucor's entrance into this isn't like weeks or months old. This is something going back 2 or 3 years that we have been, again, readying ourselves to be where the puck is going to be at. And so today with the acquisitions of Southwest Data Products, our Nucor warehouse systems are capability set in our buildings plate, structural to group all are now combining where today, Nucor make or supply roughly 95% of all the steel required and outside of a data center today. So we are really, really capable of providing most of what the hyperscalers need today. Our relationship build with them over the last 4, 5, 6 years has been incredible. There's a high level of trust there. We earn a lot of that business. And so to your question, do we anticipate that growing into 2027? Yes. And again, as we think about growth in fueling Nucor's expand beyond growth, you can expect that some of those areas of growth will be in that space and the continued build-out of our data center offering to our customers. As we get to the border wall, I'll ask John Hollatz, maybe to comment on that. It's been lighting rot for us. And again, another end market that we've been really very well prepared and capable to supply that need. But John, maybe giving some framing around the volumes.

John Hollatz

Hi, Bill. On the border wall, we estimate there's about 1,400 miles of new wall to be built. That's primary and secondary role. And there's around 1,500 tons of steel in there per mile. And we have been shipping thousands of tons every week to the border. You can see it in the increased volumes in our Tubular group, and that's going to continue all the way through 2027 and well into 2028. And again, we're the only company with the raw materials, the sheet supply, the tube capacity and the logistics team to keep up with the demand for the border. And for the two group, it's not just for -- on top of that, you've got a really strong demand for structural and the HSS side. We're seeing incredible performance from our conduit team. Our sprinkler pipe team is having a great year, and all of that has played a role in leading to our Steel Products group having the best quarter on the earnings side that we've had since the beginning of 2024. So we see a really good outlook well past the end of '26 and into '27 for the order fence.

William Peterson

Congrats again.

Leon Topalian

Thank you, Bill.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lawson Winder with BofA Securities.

Lawson Winder

Nice results. If I could add on your comments around merchant bar. Could you just discuss a bit more as to what end markets are primarily driving that? And then how do the market dynamics vary regionally on merchant bar? And then, is there any merchant bar replacement of rebar capacity at the current moment or to any extent at all?

Leon Topalian

I say that last part of your question again, Lawson?

Lawson Winder

Just in terms of the strength in shipments from merchant bar, is that causing any displacement of rebar shipping capacity?

Leon Topalian

Okay. Look, I'm going to ask Randy Spicer to jump in on this, but just a bit of framing. Our rebar strategy and our that end market has been incredibly strong for us. Our longest product groups are some of the most profitable and have been through the entire cycle. There's a lot of questions right on the flattening of this cost curve. But our ability to maintain margins, our ability, and how our teams executed and remaining the low-cost producer, building these facilities where there's a high level of scrap inventory as well as the customers that are in proximity gives Nucor unique differentiated advantage in this marketplace. And quite frankly, ADC is growing. And so again, I remain very optimistic knowing that, and there's some competitors coming into the space, and that will continue. But we've been in this business for 60 years now. We know this market incredibly well. Our teams are executing at a high level. But Randy, why don't you share a little more on what we're doing with merchant bar in particular in that growth.

Randy Spicer

Thanks, Leon. Lawson, thank you for the question. Yes, certainly, seeing tremendous growth in both, quite frankly, merchant and rebar as evidenced by the record shipments that we've seen that's in place. What I would tell you specifically around merchant bar is it's got exposure to some of the highest markets that we've seen right now, specifically, as Leon just talked about data centers, we're in the middle of what we call the AI Super Bowl, the hyperscaler has committed enormous amount of capital to these data center build-outs and those structures require these larger sections that we're able to produce at Nucor. And that's showing up directly in our order book. So if you look and see, we're at record levels to be able to take advantage of both here on '26 as well as the growth as we go forward into '27. With that, you're also spot on of as you see the margins increase in that space, you're also seeing some of the rebar producers out there, right, that are payable of making flexible products, of which Nucor is one of the largest in that space that you're actually able to move into margin bar space as well. So with that growth, we've continued to see strong performance, and we would expect to see that as we go forward into future years.

Lawson Winder

Okay. That's very helpful. And then maybe just to put a finer point on my last question. I mean, given the way your capacity as [indiscernible] seen up between and in Missouri, is there some placement of rebar as a result of that merchant bar capacity, i.e., is the rebar market in the U.S. getting tighter as a result of what you're seeing in merchant bar.

Leon Topalian

Well, look, you're seeing ADC actually grow. If you look back a year or two, is it roughly 9.5 million tons, we're predicting that to be upwards to 10.5 million tons or possibly 11 million tons. And so the market is growing. And so that's just bonds very well, again, for our capability set and where we're going. But very specifically to your displacement question. One of the unique advantages and what Randy and his groups have done, again, this is over years when we put Frostproof and Sedalia in our first two micro mills, we looked at overall mix and how do we supply that. We took Darlington from rebar some MBQ into normal rebar, and all MBQ and Ohio and SBQ and wire rod. And so Darlington's capabilities has expanded tremendously. Cant's investment in their growth, and they've moved out of a lot of rebar into heavy MBQ and beyond. And so again, the breadth of our our footprint enables us to shift and modify where we meet the geographic needs and the capability sets that, again, our customers need from us in the regions we're located. So yes, there's been a lot of that that's happened, Lawson, over the last 5, 6, 7 years that really kind of catapulted with the investment of the rod mill at Darlington and now continues on.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tristan Gresser with BNP Parabas.

Tristan Gresser

I have two. First one is on your auto strategy. You had a slide in your presentation, and I think a couple of years ago, you mentioned you go to double auto shipments. So could you provide maybe an update on tonnage wise, how much do you expect to achieve this year and the next. Also I was curious if [indiscernible], I don't think you've done this in the past, but are you entering into annual contracts with OEMs? Do you have everything you need from a raw material standpoint or you need to make some adjustments. And lastly, from a quality perspective, it would be interesting to have your view if you're confident that you can fully replicate the products that customers usually get from integrated producer. I'd leave it there.

Leon Topalian

Tristan, I'm going to go ahead and jump in here, and while I'm going to tell you, Noah Hanners will answer the question in a minute. I may not leave him anything to answer. Because I really appreciate the question, and I want to fully blow apart any notion that do not have the technical and quality capabilities to provide and make exposed automotive panels. It has been the last bastion of the integrated competition and the only thing they have left, think about it. Left in America, there's not a single integrated producer making a long product in America. [indiscernible] effort, these resources that process engineering and process and quality control the PPAPs. All that work is now shifting into West Virginia. So as they begin ramping up, that mill will produce 30% automotive steels capable of making the highest end, so you can fully dismantle any notion that the EAF producers cannot make the most complex, high-quality and exposed pieces of that vehicle, it's over. We're on it, we're doing it, and we're going to continue to do it, and we're going to continue to take that market share away from the integrated producers period full stop. So Noah, anything to add on that, I'll let you [indiscernible].

Noah Hanners

I love Leon's energy around this because so proud of what our team has accomplished, and we can produce the full suite of what auto demand for us. And I'll tell you, our customers are pumped about doing more business with us. And and the capabilities that we're bringing to the market are perfectly timed for meeting their demand. I mean if you talk about West Virginia, the first phase of West Virginia is largely volume, improving the mill. And then we get out to 2028, and that's when we'll start to put auto tons through qualifications on Western. So it's coming soon. The second thing is at Berkeley. We already do a lot of auto out of Berkeley. They were a substrate mill for that qualification, I just mentioned. They just galvanized their first coil on the new galv line last week, awesome accomplished that team, on time, on budget, and we're just really well positioned to take substantial share in the automotive market continue to grow exercise our capabilities there. We're about 10% this year. We'll do about 1 million tons at West Virginia, as we ramped up there. A significant portion of that, probably 10% goes into auto exposed. So awesome story about our growth in automotive, really proud of our team.

Jack Sullivan

And the other thing I'd add there, Noah, on automotive, I think the big testament goes to the amount of time and energy and frankly, patients that's taken our team and our investors on helping us along this journey. As Leon mentioned, we are now on a platform aspirationally, we'd like to get a bigger chunk of that platform, but starting out with certain parts and look forward to continuing to chip away at that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Dushkin with Wells Fargo.

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena with Barclays.

All right team. It looks like we're having a bit of technical difficulty with these last two questions here. It appears our conference room has dropped. So in order to get these last two questions up, we will need to end this event and restart this broadcast.

Leon Topalian

[ Kaila, ] why don't we wrap here and then Jack and his IR team can reach out accordingly to Richard and the other gentlemen to answer their question.

Operator

Okay. Yes. The only thing we won't have the closing remarks on the broadcast, we'll have to add those in separately.

Leon Topalian

I do that live now anyway. So we're ready to wrap up.

Operator

Okay. Unfortunately, because the conference room has dropped, there's -- they're not able to hear your closing remarks. So...

Leon Topalian

How quickly can we restart it?

Operator

We can do it pretty quick here. I will end the broadcast and the event you just have to call back in, and you'll have to ask your analysts to redial back.

[Technical difficulty]

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Dushkin with Wells Fargo.

Unknown Analyst

So on the data centers that you all said it's 15% of backlog. I just kind of want to unpack what's the breakout of that between your different products? Like how much is structural versus how much is she versus downstream? Just any color there would be helpful.

Leon Topalian

Yes. Look, the 15% is the entire enterprise. And obviously, in the long products, particularly structural, much higher, Matt. It's in the 30% to 35% range. And so those teams continue to operate in one of the strongest demanded -- well, the strongest demand environment we've ever had. Nucor Yamato and Berkeley Beam are running rates with backlogs that are unprecedented. We've never seen in the history of those mills in the 35-year history at NYS. So again, robust doesn't really put justice to the demand drivers fueling that. And a big piece of that for structural in the data centers.

Stephen Laxton

Matt, maybe if I could just add a little bit there to some of our downstream businesses are seeing a lot of volume from the data center space to particularly [ Vulcraft, ] but also, it might surprise you, our metal buildings group has picked up a fair amount of volume as well. And really that's just a testament to our team's ability, the breadth of the portfolio and solutions that we offer. And the range of end market capabilities we have and the willingness to work with customers to find the right outcome. So it's really -- it's -- Leon correctly highlighted, is pronounced in beams. That's not surprising to anybody. Randy highlighted earlier, it's having an impact on MBQ and bar. And of course, in fall craft, you wouldn't be surprised. But some of the other areas because of Nucor's breadth, we're seeing volume pick up as well.

Unknown Analyst

That's all super helpful. And then I just want to pivot to piggyback on Tristan's question. And sorry, when you'll cut off, you may have been answering this. But just curious about the commercial approach to the exposed auto qualifications, how are you all thinking about the contract structure for that, whether it's fixed maybe attain with the spot market, which I assume would be tough, but just curious on that.

Leon Topalian

Matt, where did you cut off? What did you hear? How far into the answer before you lost us?

Unknown Analyst

We got to how you won with GM and then it kind of just cut off a little bit after that, kind of like...

Leon Topalian

Okay. It gives me a wonderful opportunity to make sure everyone understands the dispelling nature that EAF producers cannot make the most stringent grades of exposed automotive. Again, we're on the General Motors platform for that, the Mercy start-up of their second galv line is in play in West Virginia will continue to ramp. And look, this is also not a new story. Well, it's the first platform we've been given, we've been in the automotive space for more than 10 years, right? So we've learned and worked with the major OEMs in this country for a long time, not just GM, but Ford and BMW and Mercedes and many others. And I'll let Noah speak more to that. But look, with General Motors, we've had a great relationship with 6x recipient of the Supplier of the Year award with them. And so we understand their need. We've worked closely with them. Our engineers, metallurgist and commercial teams to build incredible relationships. Our technical teams and Detroit provide an incredible avenue for those OEMs to understand how we're doing it and for us to link in those PPAPs and process control side to have that full offering. And so no, I'll let you answer maybe if you want to add any more detail on the commercial, and how we're thinking about that. I just wanted to provide the backdrop that these are not new orders or new customers for us. It's a new platform, new grades, but not new relationships.

Noah Hanners

Thanks for the question, Matt. Sorry, I missed my answer the first time. I assure you it was brilliant. But to give you some more color, I guess, specifically on the contract side. It's one thing to have the capabilities, and we're at a point where we're very confident in our capabilities. It's built on decades of work by our team to learn how to make the grades and meet our customers' requirements. And this proof of our ability to get on platform that I've talked about here is really a testament to that. But then getting set up contractually and qualified takes a number of years. And we have a leg up on our growth because we have an auto exposed gap line in Mexico where we do extensive automotive a variety of different grades that will match up nicely with the suite of capabilities of Berkeley and West Virginia. And then we have a broad book of capabilities and qualifications that we've worked through. So our team is very experienced with the qualification process, and we're able to lean into those qualifications at some of our other locations to really set West Virginia up for success. West Virginia by volume are our biggest growth opportunity for automotive. We'll do 1 million tons of automotive out of West Virginia, about 100,000 million tons of that will eventually be auto exposed. So we're able to lean into that know-how across our team and those other resources to start to fast track those qualifications.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena with Barclays.

Richard Garchitorena

If I can just ask quickly in terms of pricing, obviously, the market has been able to withstand pricing moving higher. Can you provide some color in terms of what you're hearing from customers? And when it comes to fixed price contracts resetting next year, how should we think about that impacting your results.

Leon Topalian

Richard, I want to make sure I understand the question. Are you asking how pricing in the structural side moving into '27 is impacting our customers?

Richard Garchitorena

No. I want to know the [ toll ] in the market. Yes, how in market...

Noah Hanners

Hi, Richard. This is Noah. Let me just step in and talk about where we are with our sheet contracts and how we work through resetting this contracts as we step into 2027. And we come into this market. You've heard the demand drivers we've talked about, really robust demand picture across the sheet group and an expectation of continued growth in demand. And then we're bringing these new capabilities to the fold as well. So West Virginia will start to come online. Berkley, Indiana, just painted their first coil. So our goal through contract season is to match up these new capabilities and these really strong demand picture to meet the needs, especially our long-term customers. And we've never been -- I would tell you more deliberate about that plan. And we have a strategy that feels good because it's very coherent across our mills. Some mills are going to have to give up volume to get West Virginia online, they're able to go out, and we're able to back those replacement tons up contractually. So I think we have a very coherent plan in the face of a lot of strong demand picture out there. So maybe talk about the terms. We're not going to get into the specifics, but they're significantly better as we step into 2027. We've improved the overall quality of the agreements, lower discounts higher extras and our volume variances are tighter than they were in 2026. If you look back historically, we've been about 80% to 85% contracted will be a little heavier than that this year. And I think our commercial team has done an outstanding job positioning us for 2027.

Leon Topalian

And [ Tristan, ] you had also asked about the composition of our contracts that are fixed that may be resetting at a different price as we go into 2027, Nucor really doesn't have a very large percentage of contracts that are fixed.

Noah Hanners

Yes, the majority of our fixed are going to be in auto. And I would call that just loosely 5% to maybe at 7% of our fixed contracts. But the majority will reset at year-end, right?

Katja Jancic

That's 5% to 7% sheet.

Noah Hanners

Yes, right. Very low single-digit percentage of overall company.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tristan Gresser with BNP Perama.

Tristan Gresser

I just have another question on the strong performance of the Steel Products division. If you could dive a little bit into that, the main driver behind it, maybe the contribution of towers, panels, doors, anything standing out or anything really behind the strong performance? And also when we look past that, looking into Q4 and Q1 next year, should we expect some similar scale of ASP increase? Or would you expect some moderation of that? And even with lower volumes, how do you think about margins? Are they going to continue to expand every quarter? Or are you going to feel that the pressure from those higher substrate costs in general?

Leon Topalian

Well, look, that's a lot to unpack here, and I'm going to let John Holatz take most of it. But look, as we sort of answered earlier as well, Tristan, as we came out of '25 into '26, the demand environment has continued to to become more and more and more robust. And with that, pricing is flowing through the enterprise as well. So you're seeing higher realized pricing in our downstream products groups that are now hitting the balance sheet, and we'll continue to do so well into 2027, again, at a very high level, and the products group now in Nucor is such a wide and diverse set of businesses and generates great returns. But again, there's a lot of different business segments in that. So John, why don't you just walk through to Tristan's question, some of those highlights and what we're most excited about as we head.

John Hollatz

Yes, Tristan, I appreciate that question and the recognition that our Steel Products earnings were the best earnings in Q3 that we've had since the beginning of of 2024. And this is not just one specific product. This is a variety of different products that are contributing to this. We talked earlier about the the Tubular Group and their performance related to water mall overall construction. On the Vulcraft joist and deck side, we had noted previously that we were seeing higher prices in new order entry and that is now being realized in our earnings and new orders continue to exceed our current backlog pricing. And that backlog carries us well into 2027. It was mentioned earlier, our Buildings group and their participation in the data center market. They had a really strong third quarter. It's setting the stage for a great year in 2027. And again, we're the only company, as Steve mentioned, that has the ability to support data centers through conventional construction with joist and deck and structural steel or the alternative of supplying a pre-engineered building. And then I also want to recognize our Insulated Panel Group, one of our expand Beyond businesses and had record earnings in the third quarter, and that again will carry us well into 2027. Overall, our backlogs are up about 25%. Pricing continues to improve, and it's going to -- we're going to have a good Q4 and a really strong 2027.

Leon Topalian

And maybe the other thing too, and you mentioned it, Tristan, but look, we're excited -- we love our door business. We love with CHI and Ritec are doing, but think about the build out what we've done in towers, right? We've been pretty public that we made some runs on the M&A side that didn't work out. We love the space and have for a lot of years. And so we made the decision a couple of years ago that we're going to do it organically. We bought a small company in Summit to kind of begin and get some in-house knowledge and now it's expanded to 3 greenfield towers plants, 2 of which are online and the third that will be up and running by mid next year. But think about what -- and I think it was Steve's opening comments, we -- that team has already qualified at 30 different utilities. So not unlike the robust excitement and demand picture from OEMs into the sheet group to provide the higher end and automotive exposed grades. We're finding and feeling the very same relationship build and networking within the utility side to grow that space. And so the order books are getting filled very, very quickly. And again, it's a space that not only are -- do we feel really well poised to provide, but the build-out of those facilities is so automated. We truly believe we're going to have a cost -- significant cost advantage in a differentiated position in that market. So again, I'm really proud of what the downstream products groups teams are doing across the board and including the [ Spanbion ] businesses. So I appreciate the question, Tristan.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A portion. I will now turn the call back to Leon Topalian, Chair and CEO, for closing remarks.

Leon Topalian

Well, team, as we close, I want to thank our 33,000 teammates for another strong quarter and for your continued unwavering commitment to our most important value, the health, safety and well-being of every one of our team members. Thank you to our customers for the place trust you place in us with each and every order. We want to continue to work hard and earn your business every day and asking to our shareholders, thank you for trusting us for your valuable shareholder capital, '26 is shaping up to be a really, really good year. And we believe '27 will be even stronger. Our best days are definitely in front of us. Thank you for your interest in Nucor, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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