Rush Enterprises (RUSHA) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：受卡车需求推动营收增长12.4%lg...

得益于新卡车交付量增加及售后市场需求改善，Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA) 2026年第三季度营收和盈利均实现增长。管理层表示，积压订单对第四季度和2027年初构成支撑，但排放规则的不确定性及供应商限制可能会影响订单与交付时机。

核心要点

• 营收同比增长12.4%至约21亿美元，主要受新卡车交付量增加及售后市场业务改善推动。
• 净利润增长18.2%至7800万美元，稀释后每股收益为0.65美元。
• 零部件、服务及碰撞修复中心营收增长5.8%至约6.8亿美元，占毛利润总额的近63%。
• 美国新8级重卡销量攀升24.4%至3,880辆，推动Rush Enterprises的市场份额提升至6.5%。
• 管理层表示，积压订单为强劲的第四季度和2027年第一季度提供了良好的能见度，但供应商瓶颈可能会导致部分交付在不同季度之间发生偏移。
• 由于客户正在等待美国国家环境保护局（EPA）2027年排放规则及制造商定价的进一步明确，新订单有所放缓。管理层认为这一放缓主要是时机问题，并表示潜在的替换需求依然健康。

关键财务数据

业务与运营表现

Rush Enterprises在美国售出3,880辆新8级重卡，同比增长24.4%，而行业增长率仅略高于10%。8级重卡市场份额达到6.5%。管理层将这一表现很大程度上归因于长途运输客户的需求，这得益于货运费率的改善以及更换老旧设备的需要。

中型卡车销售同样超越大盘。该公司在美国售出了3,265辆新的4至7级车辆，增长9.6%，而整体市场基本持平。此前推迟采购的大型车队开始接收交付，而在制造产能趋紧的情况下，现货库存帮助Rush及时服务了客户。

二手商用车销量增长5.5%至1,913辆。小型车队的需求尤为强劲。管理层表示，新卡车供应有限以及预期新车价格上涨，继续支撑着二手设备的需求。

零部件、服务及碰撞修复中心营收受益于全国性大客户业务、小型本地客户降幅放缓以及新卡车交付量的增加。8月份创下了该公司今年最高的单日维修厂毛利润，9月份紧随其后。然而，全国性大客户业务的利润率低于小型客户业务。

租赁及出租营收为9820万美元，增长5.3%，反映出出租利用率提升以及全包租赁和合同维保业务的持续增长。

本季度，Rush完成了对MCT Companies 50%股权的投资，正式进入冷藏运输市场。MCT在6个州运营着17家全功能经销店和3个移动服务点。

管理层展望

管理层表示，现有积压订单对强劲的第四季度和2027年第一季度构成支撑。由于供应限制，部分第四季度的交付可能会顺延至第一季度，而对第二季度的可见度依然有限。

进入2027年初，公司对中型卡车需求保持乐观。本季度增加了库存，以帮助应对可能出现的生产瓶颈，并为需要快速提车的客户提供服务。

管理层预计，接下来的几个季度二手卡车业绩将保持稳定和坚实。管理层还预计，随着部分客户评估购买更昂贵新车的替代方案，2027年的出租需求将保持健康。

在零部件和服务方面，管理层表示受正常季节性因素影响，渐进式增长似乎是可持续的。公司希望在2027年实现中单位数的同店增长，不过这仅作为目标提出来，而非正式的业绩指引。

第四季度的同比比较将减少三个工作日。管理层估计，每个工作日对应超过300万美元的毛利润。

风险与关键关注事项

EPA最终的2027年排放框架仍存在不确定性。管理层表示，如果最终决定推迟到1月或2月，即使该法规计划于2027年1月1日生效，行业也可能需要根据草案规则运营。

规则草案包括对重型发动机处以约6,700美元的不合规罚款，对中型发动机处以约4,400美元的不合规罚款，外加对重型发动机罚款征收的联邦消费税。制造商正采取不同的技术和罚款应对策略，使客户的采购和定价决策变得复杂。

供应链瓶颈正在影响多家原始设备制造商（OEM）的二级和三级供应商。卡车可能已基本完工，但需等待缺失部件到位才能出厂，这需要额外的处理工序并导致交付延误。管理层预计该问题将拉长交付周期，而非消除需求。

利润率对销售组合仍较为敏感。车队卡车销售的利润率通常较低，而近期零部件营收的增速快于利润率更高的服务营收。竞争压力以及高企的燃料和司机成本，也迫使客户（特别是小型运营商）更加严格地控制维护支出。

分析师问答环节亮点

• EPA规则与客户行为：管理层认为，许多客户倾向于在初期支付不合规罚款，并在新排放技术经实际车队测试后再逐步采用。
• 订单放缓：客户在2026年晚期接收了大量交付，目前正在等待2027年更明确的定价和技术细节。管理层预计这些问题将在未来60天内得到解决，并认为订单可能会迅速反弹。
• 替换需求：管理层指出，车队老龄化、维护成本增加以及可靠性下降是即使订单时机保持不均衡，替换需求仍将持续的原因。
• 交付时机：2026年底前生产的旧技术发动机以及获批的过渡性生产可对1月份的卡车组装构成支撑，有助于在第一季度的很大一部分时间里维持零售交付。
• 售后市场利润率：利润率较低的零部件和全国性大客户业务的增长强于利润率较高的服务业务和小型客户业务。管理层预计，如果本地客户业务有所改善，利润率将从中受益。
• 卡车利润率：管理层表示卡车利润率保持在8%左右的水平，并认为随着销售组合改善，未来几个季度存在上升空间。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Rush Enterprises, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Rusty Rush, CEO, President, Chairman of the Board. Please go ahead.

W. Rush

Well, good morning, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. With me this morning are Steve Keller, our Chief Financial Officer; Jody Pollard, our Chief Operating Officer; Jay Hazelwood, our Vice President and Controller; and Michael Goldstone, our Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Before we get started, I'll turn it over to Steve for a few forward-looking statements.

Steven Keller

Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

W. Rush

Thanks, Steve. We had a strong third quarter. Revenue was approximately $2.1 billion, up 12.4% from a year ago, and net income was $78 million, $0.65 diluted share and up 18.2% from a year ago. We also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share. The biggest drivers this quarter were higher new truck deliveries and improving aftermarket activity.

Freight conditions have continued to get better following a prolonged downturn, and we're encouraged by what we're seeing as we move through the fourth quarter. The quarter also demonstrates the value of the diversified business we built. We serve a broad range of customers across multiple parts of the commercial vehicle market, giving us different avenues for growth as conditions improve.

During the quarter, we completed our 50% investment in MCT Companies, giving us a meaningful entry into the refrigerated transportation space. MCT operates 17 full-service dealerships and 3 mobile service locations across 6 states. This is a great strategic fit and another step forward, providing customers with more of the products and services they need to operate their fleets. Parts and service and collision center revenue was approximately $680 million, up 5.8%. Aftermarket operations generated nearly 63% of our total gross profit.

Our production ratio was 128.3%. Demand improved across our customer base with particularly good growth in energy and wholesale. We also saw encouraging improvement among smaller local customers. We expect that momentum to continue, allowing for normal seasonality. Trucks we're delivering from our backlog should also help create additional parts and service opportunities. At the same time, we're focused on operating efficiently and capturing more of our local customers maintenance and repair business.

Class 8 was particularly strong. We sold 3,880 new Class 8 trucks in the U.S., up 24.4% compared with industry growth of just over 10%. That brought our Class 8 market share to 6.5%. Over-the-road customers drove much of that growth as improving freight rates and need to replace older equipment supported demand.

Our backlog gives us a good visibility into the strong fourth quarter and first quarter of next year, although supply constraints could affect the timing of some deliveries. The bigger question right now is new order activity. Quoting and orders have slowed as customers wait for clarity around the EPA's 2027 emission rules and ultimately manufacturers pricing. We view that largely as just a timing issue. Underlying demand remains healthy, and we expect ordering activity to improve once customers have the information they need to make replacement decisions.

Medium-duty also performed well. We sold 3,265 Class 4 through 7 vehicles in the U.S., up 9.6%, while the overall market was essentially flat. Several large fleets that had deferred purchases earlier in the year took delivery during the quarter and our ready-to-roll inventory helped to serve customers as manufacture capacity tightened.

We remain positive about medium-duty demand going into early 2027. We added inventory during the quarter to help manage possible production constraints, which should put us in a good position to respond to customers who need equipment quickly. Used truck demand was also healthy. We sold 1,913 used commercial vehicles, up 5.5% over the last year, with demand particularly strong among smaller fleets. Limited new truck availability and expected increases in new vehicle prices continue to make used equipment an attractive alternative for many customers.

Our leasing and rental business also had a good quarter. Revenue was up $98.2 million, up 5.3%, driven by improved rental utilization, along with continued growth in full-service leasing and contract maintenance. We expect rental demand to remain healthy next year as some customers consider alternatives to buying higher-priced new vehicles. Overall, I'm pleased with how the business performed this quarter. We generated strong growth, gained share in both Class 8 and medium duty, saw continued improvement in aftermarket demand and maintained a very strong financial position.

During the quarter, we repurchased $10.3 million of our stock, paid $16.4 million in dividends and ended September with $226 million in cash and cash equivalents. Going forward, our focus remains pretty straightforward, serve our customers well, make it easier for them to do business with Rush and continue investing where we see attractive opportunities. That's what our total solution strategy is about. We want to support customers across the life of the vehicle from the initial purchase through parts and service, technology, leasing, rental and other solutions. The more effectively we do that, the more valuable those relationships become for both our customers and Rush.

Finally, I want to thank our employees. Their hard work and commitment to our customers are what make these results possible, and I appreciate everything they do for Rush enterprises. With that, I'll take the questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Obin.

分析师问答

Andrew Obin

Just Rusty, maybe you can just -- we talked about it, Rusty, Steve. Maybe we can talk about just regulatory uncertainty and how it impacts your customer behavior going to '27.

W. Rush

Sure, Andrew. I could probably ramble on for 20 minutes talking about it. There's no question that getting regulatory answers from the EPA is critical for manufacturers and customers alike, right? And most people, you may remember, I'm going to try to make this as short as I can. The EPA came out and gave a draft back in July about what the changes they were making to the 2027 January 1 rule.

Basically, they said they were going to allow nonconformance penalties if you chose that, which means you could carry the old engine that we had and still sell it, but there would be a penalty. Heavy-duty was around $6,700, medium around $4,400 plus FET on the heavy-duty engine or you could bring on your new technology, which would be meet the 0.3 35 milligrams, whatever is NOx, if the law has been written for a while. In doing that, you could also use credits to buy that down from 0.65, okay, to 0.35, okay?

So you really had different choices. They got rid of the warranties, they said because there's supposed to be a 10-year warranty on after life after treatment, excuse me. And we're going to go back to the regular 1-year standard warranty on after treatment, not 10 years. And also some other provisions inside that really weren't quite as expensive, but some other provisions they had out there.

Now that's a graph. So it was up for review, a commentary period. All the comments came back, and we kept hearing we're going to get the final decree in November. Now in the last couple of weeks, I'm hearing that we're not going to get it in November. There's been some things that have gone on, I think, in the EPA that are going to delay it. And possibly -- I don't know for a fact, but possibly, we're going to be told just to work off a draft. We'll get the final decree out in January and February, but it's got to go in the 1st of January. So it's kind of up in the air as to exactly is that really is going to stay the same?

Are they going to make adjustments? Will they get NCPs up or down? We don't know, okay? But you have to go off the assumptions that the draft will stay the same, I believe, unless they do come up with the final decree. That being said, all the manufacturers are taking different paths. And that's fluid also. I do know that PACCAR is all in on NCPs. I know that Cummins is in on NCPs through the end of September, rolling in new technology. International has going to go with NCPs for probably 4 months and then roll into the new technology through the summer.

Freightliner is not going to do that. Freightliner is going with the new technology right out of the bat, right out of the chute. Volvo, I feel sure I know they've got new technology. I think it might have a mix. So my point to you would be that it's all different across the board. I've never seen a law. I mean I'm pretty old, right? In fact, I'm really old. So I've never seen an EPA law or decree where it wasn't the same for everybody on one particular date. So it's sort of in some ways, hunted the full implementation of the January 1, '27 EPA law to where it's sort of spread out.

Some will come in on January 1. Some may not do it until the following year. You don't know NCPs, there's no close on the date on it, but it would probably go up a rather large amount in January 1 of '28. So I would imagine that it will allow from a customer perspective. I don't believe we've had time to truly test these engines. That's my personal belief.

So I do believe it gives customers a chance to not have to roll right into this new technology because everybody is after treatment is a little bit different, okay? I can talk forever, okay? All the manufacturers are doing about it a little bit different. So I think from a customer perspective, I would be leaning towards wanting to pay some NCPs, that's my personal opinion, and roll in and test the new technology before I go all into the pool. Let's dive into the shallow end, not to deep end, right? Let's ease our way into it. If I'm a customer, that's how I approach it. But I'm not a customer. I'm just not a dealer. So -- but I've talked to many of them, obvious. I just came back from ATA, and that's definitely not a few of them talk. Now I'm sure some will go in with the proper assurances.

But the manufacturers we represent are going to ease into the pool. This would be the best way for me to tell you, as I just went through. So -- but it's all over the board. is to -- and with still uncertainty driven by our great government that can't seem to write a final decree. But I know there's a lot of legal ramifications. They have to be very careful with the changes. They've tried to make it easier for customers.

By allowing NCPs, most customers would prefer that and then test. I don't believe customers have been given enough time. In fact, I know they haven't with anybody's technology on the aftertreatment to test it. Most folks want to run this stuff for over a year plus before they roll it into their fleet because we've seen throughout history that new technology is not always running just right, right out of the gate, right? There are adjustments that have to be made and sometimes there can be major adjustments. I mean I go back to something that's as simple as going to DEF, which we did in 2010, when we went to the blue to the DEF, like Europe, SCR technology. I'm going to tell you, there was clogged particulate filters all over this country, okay traps and stuff.

Our shops were full of these kinds of things. As we rolled into that, even something that have been running for years in Europe, we had issues with implementing here in the U.S. So people remember those cars, so they would, in my mind, prefer to roll into it. But I'm done, like I said, I could talk forever about it. And you've got my opinions on it. It may not be everybody's but their mind. And so that's -- they're not trying to the lay of the land, which is different depending on who you're talking to, and we're waiting it would be great if we can at least get a final decree because no one likes working off a draft.

And then you get stuff on order and things happen and the decree comes out, it can get a little messy in my mind if we don't get a decree.

Andrew Obin

Rusty, no, great. I appreciate your comprehensive answer. And maybe another question is on any potential disruptions to OEMs' ability to ship trucks to you given potential supply chain constraints over the next couple of quarters, how that thinking has evolved? And what do you think given that both shipments and orders will look like over the next couple of months?

W. Rush

Any time you ramp up like these manufacturers have, some of these folks have got 6 to 8 increases or more throughout the year. Now they say ramp slowly up, I know. I mean I know both my manufacturers are running at full tilt, okay? But what happens is you put a big strain on the supply base. And it's not always just the #1 supply base. It's not your Tier 1. It's your Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers that you're asking to add people, add all these resources and ramp up for a big 6-month period, but then you can't guarantee them Class 8 truck market is always what it is. It's a little volatile. And so you're asking them to ramp up 80%.

Well, then you can't guarantee them ramp down. And so then they got -- it's about hiring people, training people, getting going. and giving them -- so it does put a strain. So what I'm saying is it really on the Tier 2, Tier 3. There are some cases of Tier 1, I'm not going to get specific that have popped up here in the last couple of weeks that are going to make some of these deliveries get stretched out. And it's not one OEM. It's all OEMs that are affected, okay? So don't let -- I think some people make it, but no, it's the OEMs we represent, it's the ones we don't represent.

So what happens if you're trying to keep the lines running good and what happens is you short what I call Tier 2, Tier 3, you're short this gauge or you're short this lens or something. Well, you're not going to just stop the truck and leave it on the line. You're going to take it off, make sure everything is fine, get it tested and put it in a back lot so you get that piece, then you're going to go put it on there. So it's just -- you got to touch the vehicle 2 or 3 times. And when that happens, it did happen. This is nothing unique. This happens every time you have this big surge in manufacturing and order activity. So it does cramp the supply. It does slow down the deliveries. I've got numbers of what my Q4 should be, but I'm not going to guarantee it because some of it could get delayed into Q1.

So I think that's why we feel pretty good about Q4 and Q1. Now I can't tell you much about Q2 because I don't think anybody, no OEM has much backlog. I got we all got a little past with the new engine stuff. So I feel -- but I remember we're a dealer. So we're on the tail of the dog. So we're not manufacturing. We're delivering to customers, which typically takes 30 days to 90 days to 128 days, depending on if it's over the highway or goes into vocational businesses and the bodies and things like that. So that's why I can fairly confidently say, I feel good about Q4 and Q1, Q2 to be known. But remember, we've had 6 months of backlog. And it's not -- and so it's -- by the way, it's going down every day because we're not -- the order intake is not going to be super strong.

But as it goes down and as we get clarity on emissions and we get clarity on pricing, because there's inflationary pieces inside of this besides engines not all the engines. So OEMs and customers or dealers, of course, including me, but really, there will be a meeting of the minds on pricing. But when I told you about all those different technologies on the new stuff, it's really interesting right now because the different technologies, I'm jumping out further to your question, by the way, the different technologies have different cost factors to them and different OEMs are in different positions coming out of tariffs and stuff. It is really a pretty complex game out there right now. I know it's going to get sorted out as backlogs decrease, we'll get sorted out because there is demand out there. I know there's demand for next year. I've talked to customers.

It's just this fall we're in of clarity on emissions and clarity on future pricing, right? But it will get sorted out here in the next 60 days, and we'll get back to normal. There could be a little bit -- there could be a small blip for back half of Q1 and something in Q2, but it will get sorted out because the demand is there. The age of the fleet is up, okay? So regardless about growth, the replacement demand is still there going into next year, which is why I think you see ACTs out there. I don't know, they're up like it's 10% or something. I don't have it in front of me right now, but it is up 8%, 10% -- now subject to change, of course.

But because we'll start the year off in my mind with a better Q1, that's deliveries than what we did last year. So I know I'm going past your question. But yes, back to your question, it will get stretched out due to supply constraints. They will get built in my mind, I don't see anything that's going to blow it all up, but you're also fighting the law, which basically means the engine has to get built prior to December 31 if you're using old technology.

Or should I say, I think it goes down, you have to set the crank in the block. That's how it really reads. But you will build old engines into January, okay? I think there's a 5% piece that the government put in their decree. I know I'm getting, but -- so we will build old engines into January. So if you look at it, there's still another, a little less than 3 months of building old engines, right? So -- but the supply piece to your first question, is going to be -- stretch it out a little bit, right, which I'm fine with. Let's just get it all delivered. I don't look for anybody to not take their equipment, okay? The demand is there. It's just a matter of getting it all built, which stretches out. It's just a timing issue on that piece of it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brady Lierz of Stephens.

Brady Lierz

Parts and service revenue growth was really strong this quarter. Can you just talk about some of the drivers of that growth? Was that mostly kind of your larger over-the-road accounts? Are you also seeing strength from your smaller unassigned accounts, too? And then just any -- how sustainable you think this growth is into 2027?

W. Rush

Right. Well, first, I do believe it is sustainable. I don't look for it to be dramatic, but it's nice to be even gradual good growth, okay? I would tell you, national account growth was there, but also smaller accounts didn't decline as dramatically as they have been in the last couple of years, right? They were starting to flatten out a little bit, which is nice to see, right? That means you're starting to get to the bottom of that piece of your business because that is typically your more profitable piece. But from a mix perspective, what growth we have was more in the national account piece. And it maybe wasn't as strong as it had been, but it was there, right? I could tell you at the end of the quarter, the 2 -- we measure things per day, how much gross profit per day we produce in our shops.

And August and September, August being the best month of the year and September being the second best month of the year from a per day average. So that was encouraging, right? So we'll see. Remember that in Q4, we do have seasonality. We do have holidays. Q4 is always the toughest, especially November and December as we roll into it just because there's less working days, right?

Yes, we have basically 3 less working days, right? And working day to us is worth $3-plus million a day in gross profit. So we will be battling back in Q4, we always do. years, it's 2. This year, it's 3, the way we look at it, we strip out the holidays. So when you put the figure the holidays in. So that will be a seasonality battle, but that's every year. So what you're really hoping for is, like you said, underlying good, strong growth, understanding seasonality, that's just -- that happens every year, right? But that underlying growth is strong and solid.

And for right now, it appears to be that way. Also, we're helped by the delivery of vehicles. Anytime we're delivering more new vehicles, some of the work -- there is work, especially in our vocational businesses where we add equipment or get them prepared, predeliver them, add stuff, sticker them, even on over-the-road business, right? There's still a little bit that goes with it of upfitting that we do to get trucks ready to go to the end user. So that's always helpful, too. So it looks like it's -- we will still maintain that with a gradually improving customer base and more trucks to deliver, which will create more gross profit from that perspective for parts and service.

Brady Lierz

That all makes sense. Maybe just lastly on used truck sales. They stepped up nicely in the third quarter. How are you thinking about used truck sales, especially just going back to Andrew's question earlier about the regulatory uncertainty. Are you seeing any tailwinds to used truck sales from that? Or just any thoughts into '27?

W. Rush

Sure. Yes. Without question, we're seeing used is solid, right? We're managing our inventories well. We're actually I think because the used market has been a little better, some customers are disposing of more of their selves. And we're not taking as large a fleet freight packages as we have in the past. Now when it's bad, they always want you to take them, right? When it's good, they like to sell them themselves, not all the time, but it does see that trend inside of it. So we're going to maintain solid used truck results, I believe, steady as it goes, should I say, stable, no big -- sometimes used is the one thing in the world that will bite it. But I don't see any bites on us coming in the future for the next few quarters. And I believe it will still be solid next year.

Just remember, with these new truck pricing going what's fixing to happen, you're just increasing the spread. That helps used trucks maintain value when new truck prices go up. We're still not anywhere close to back to the percentages that we were 3 years, 4 years, 5 years ago because new truck prices have shot up 30%, 30%, 40% in the last 5 or 6 years.

And used truck values haven't. So percentage-wise, we're still way under -- if you go back historically go over the last decade or other decades, percentage-wise, still a bigger gap than ever. So I don't see any big hit in used coming right now, my friend. I expect them to stay good and strong. I'm not going to sit here and say, I know I've read where some folks big rental leasing companies, they are going to be up 10% next year like-for-like. I'm not going to say that. Glad to see them up a little bit and make this strong and good and solid in my mind. But let's see. I mean, if some of these technologies didn't work out as well and it's after treatment, and there's more to it than just the after treatment. There's been some hardware changes inside some of these engines that are going to come out.

If you had something like that happen, you could see used truck values shoot up, okay? But I'm not here to predict that or say that. So my point being, they should hold in be good, and we should have strong steady go. We've got any issue's getting used trucks right now, okay? We've got buyers out there who're buying used trucks besides trading for used trucks, too. So if there's any issue right now. Like I said, it's just having the right good enough inventory. But we're managing it well. And there's been times in my life when you're in a different position. So I feel pretty good about where we're at.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Cole Couzens of Wolfe Research.

Cole Couzens

It sounds like outside of EPA uncertainty, you believe demand is still pretty strong. Coming out of ATA, what gives you the confidence that this order lull is temporary heading into 2027?

W. Rush

What gave it to me because people still said they had demand. Now remember, they're taking a lot of trucks, okay? It's -- besides all the diversity in people's choices and technology, which drives different pricing from the OEMs. Besides all that, okay, they're taking a lot of trucks right now. And they know that customers know, and I'm always wide open about everything. Customers know that they don't have a backlog next year. So they're going to push back on pricing for a bit, but they're taking all these trucks in the back half of the year. We're building at an extremely high rate right now. We really are. Well, those trucks have to be in service, which means they have to outservice other trucks if they replace them. So they have to take trucks out of service, put trucks in service. And that takes a little time for them, too.

It's not like -- it's not like going to the races jumping out of one truck, truck and the next one. It's a little more to it than that because you got to get the other truck ready for disposal, which means you got to fix it up the used truck, the new truck needs to be ready to go on the road. So it takes them a little time. I know that people said they have strong demand, but they're not going to be in a really big hurry. I don't see that. I'm not saying that that's just not what I see. I talked to a lot of people. It will -- right up front. I'm sure that as we get closer to that time frame, look, this industry at times, I've seen this industry have 3 weeks or 4 weeks of real true backlog in it before.

So in the just-in-time world we've created over the last decades, few decades, people can ramp up and get ready and deliver pretty quick. So I think as they roll all this in, they still have a lot to buy next year. I saw some CapEx budgets that were talked about. It just may not be smooth as you go because of these other issues. So that's what gives me the confidence. Plus I look at the age of the fleet, and it's up higher. I talk to people that their fleet, if they want it X, it's X. It's up almost a year higher than what they like, which what that leads to higher maintenance that they're paying, right? They want unless not as reliable, less reliability, the over your fleet is. So it's there, and they're slowly, even though we believe there's legs.

Let's look at -- I'm talking about the over-the-road business. I look for vocational to be good next year, if not better than this year. It's been steady as it goes. But the over-the-road is still 70% of what's going on. And while we know what happened going back to last January, spot rates shot up 30%, 35%. At one time, they peaked at around 50% up year-over-year, and they leveled back down in the 30s range year-over-year, but people start to roll in their contract rates. People that have more dedicated stuff, it takes longer to roll it in. We got more dedicated depends something you're talking about.

But we -- I still believe -- and the real caused by constraint of what drivers and things like that was supply side. It wasn't demand freight side driven. It was supply. I do think the economy still seems to be -- I can't believe how well the economy has weathered all this. The war in Iran, the fuel prices and everything else, the economy continues to show through somehow. So I do believe still we're eventually going to get some demand help drive it.

Right now, it's been -- if you remember a year ago, the government was cracking down on noncompliant drivers and this and that, all these supply side things. So all this has been driven by supply side. I still think there's going to be some legs for some demand, okay, coming next year, just by novice opinion. So if you add that in, folks haven't been really able to grow a lot because there's a lot of driver cost. You're seeing some of the releases. They're better than what they were, but there's still a lot of cost, right? So they're still -- even though they're getting better freight rates, they're spending a lot of -- most people are up 10% in driver pay, right, and plus the other cost of the equipment and things like that.

So I just believe -- so it keeps pressure on the supply side, but I believe demand is coming and people wanted vehicles. It's just a matter of we're taking a lot right now. I need to get clarity on pricing and technology, and I'm going to buy a lot of trucks, okay? Because I need to, as simple as that. Even though I don't make it a simple answer.

Cole Couzens

No that's super helpful, Rusty. And I guess maybe just a question on margins. You guys had strong revenue growth in both commercial vehicle and aftermarket sales, but margins are still down year-over-year. I'm assuming there's some mix headwinds in there, but can you expand on what's driving that?

W. Rush

It's -- I would tell you, look, margins this quarter from a truck perspective were 10 less than 2 in the last 3 quarters. So to me, they were kind of flat. So I hear you, they were a hair higher. They were in the 8s still, okay? It was 8%, it was 8.1 and it was at one time it was 8.5% back a year ago or so. And really truly, it's a mix. We're getting more fleet business, okay? The small guy comes in always a little later. I'm hoping and expecting to maybe start seeing some improvement. I think our mix is going to get a little better as I look at it going into Q4. I need to see -- I got to make sure what gets delivered on time and what, okay? I don't see margins getting any less for sure.

And I see there's some upside to truck margins in my mind in the next couple of quarters, okay? When it comes to aftermarket, our parts business grew better than our service business. And your service margins are well more than double what your parts margins are, right? So we were -- I think we're only off quarter-over-quarter. We were off 1%. We weren't as good as we were a year ago. That's for sure. 100 bps or more where we're 1% off, but pretty similar to where we have been, it's mainly a mix perspective with better growth in parts than we have in service. So that would be my best answer.

And again, also on that, remember, I'm doing what I said earlier, I said my growth was in the national account fleet business. Well, that's not as good a margin as a small person, right? So again, it's more of a mix thing. And I for sure believe we can get it back. It's just been -- but I'll take it. Like I told somebody said, well, gosh, why would you want to grow -- why would I want to grow that? Because if the small guys were hurting worse, I got to get growth somewhere, but it might come a little bit less margin, right? And that's really what it's about. It's a parts and service mix and it's a customer mix kind of thing. But when the small guy comes back, you'll see those margins get back.

Cole Couzens

That's helpful. And just one quick follow-up on the supplier delays. Can you -- where is the actual bottleneck? And is the expectation that, that should start to abate as we enter 2027? Or do you see this getting -- like when does this end?

W. Rush

Well, that all depends on demand. okay? The bottleneck is across the board. As I said, in Tier 2 and Tier 3, that these OEMs have well more 1,000-plus trucks that are all really built except for tubular parts or something, right, and they're parked got back. So that bottleneck it's across the board. It's not one particular thing. There's only one Tier 1 thing that I've seen in the last few weeks, and I think people are trying to work their way through it. I'm not going to get specific about that. So those little things will get -- once -- unless we get some orders, there will be no problem come February.

So -- but I do expect this to start getting -- but that's still a ways off. as I said, I walked through our customers are not in a big hurry to take Q1 trucks. They're in servicing all these trucks. I know people that some people, their orders, 50% of what they bought this year are coming in Q4. Well, that means they're going to end service in through Q1, and they'll buy and get trucks on delivery for Q2. That will happen. But that's still a ways off, okay? And with all the uncertainties I talked about, I got time, they'll tell their selves because I know the OEMs don't have any big backlogs next year.

Now they better be careful. I would tell a customer that I do expect acceleration. I can give you reasons why you shouldn't. -- hold off. But I can't -- it's not my money to spend it's theirs. But you got to be careful because I do think when it hits, it's going to hit hard, fast and big, right? I think when orders pick back up, they're going to pick back up quickly, okay? Because some people aren't going to want to miss, okay, and have what happened in the back half of this year where not everybody got everything they wanted in the back half of this year, especially your smaller customers. So it will happen. It's just a timing thing. I have confidence it will happen.

People's needs and someone asked me a minute ago, was there a lot of orders given out of ATA, to that I'm aware of. But I do know there was a lot of talk, a lot of talk about demand that's needed, demand out there. But there's time in their mind because they got so much coming here in this back half part of this year in service. So it could be a slight little bubble in the -- as we transition to new technology, but it's not going to be a big one, and it won't last long. I have confidence in that.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Avi Jaroslawicz of UBS.

Avinatan Jaroslawicz

So just trying to think about what Q1 could look like, right? So it sounds like as long as the engine is produced even for the most part by December 31, that it's not going to get an NCP in 2027. So -- and it sounds like some of the supply bottlenecks are kind of downstream of engines. So are you thinking that the OEMs are just going to stock up on as many engines as possible? And how do you think the spillover into Q1 could look like?

W. Rush

Well, if they could, they would -- but there are regulations as to how they can do that. I can remember in the old days when they would have warehouses. We're a little more sophisticated than 40 years ago, okay? It's a little harder to do in the world we live in now. These 2 manufacturers would stack them up big, right? But remember, they don't operate -- first is, they don't operate that way. Everything is just in time. People don't operate like they used to. They don't have warehouses and parts and stuff when the manufacturers don't.

So -- but there is, I think, a 5% carry rule. It's just a matter if they can get a build. I'm not sure -- I don't want to speak for everybody where they are, but I expect everybody to build into January. I don't know if that's 3 weeks, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, probably 3 weeks, 4 weeks into January, if they can get the engines. And I'm not -- I can't answer that question because I said the old rule, and I think it still is cranes going to be laid in the engine by December 31, be totally complete the cranes going to be in the block.

So I would imagine OEMs, some for sure, will want to carry as many as they can legally, and that's what they'll do. So that would tell you you're going to have some already online trucks. And remember, just because the manufacturer builds 200 trucks a day. He's probably got 1,000 trucks going through there, right? They don't build in 1 day or more. So you got all that going through. There's a week plus that's already in the factory, then you got a 5% carry. So that gets you what's a month, 8% or something to 12%, 8.5%. So that gets you close to about 3 weeks to 4 weeks of build in the Jay. And I would imagine that would be the goal of most of the man. I've asked them, that's their business, but that would be my guess. So that gets you 3 weeks, 4 weeks in January, and then we're going to go. We're going to go to NCPs.

And by the way, if you're a customer, you going to just pay an NCP plus whatever for your model and inflation. And that's the part that's being negotiated out right now, okay? So you know what the NCP is. We know costs have risen. So this time in that little piece. So I don't see, especially for folks that are going to be using NCPs, I do not see a big stoppage or some big block in the road to get it done. there could be a little something, but it will just -- it will come to a cost factor, but it's real simple to figure out because the NCP is what the NCP is.

The problem is we're working off a draft, okay? And you got to hope it stays the same. So it does get a little confusing there. So again, I would -- but remember, I am -- we're on the tail of the gulf. So I expect us to have a solid Q1. But I need to wait and see what gets built and delivered in the fourth quarter because of all this tier supply issues, right? So I don't have clarity as to exactly how everything falls out. I feel pretty good about both quarters. But I'm just not sure. So I feel good about Q4. I feel decent good about Q1. Q2, I'll have to get to, but we got time. So as they sort out all these issues, I keep repeating myself about and talking about should them right now. But that's where we're at. That's clearly where we're at. So I'm not going to try to quantify it because I don't know about shortages and things if stuff gets delayed a couple of weeks here or there, what -- where it goes, what it go to vocational, it go here, go there. It will all be all right.

Avinatan Jaroslawicz

Okay. I appreciate that. Yes, I mean, it sounds like if they can keep building another 3 weeks to 4 weeks into January, then that could take retail sales into pretty much through February...

W. Rush

Pretty much in fourth quarter. That takes you pretty much through Q1, okay? And then I got some uncertainty in Q2, but I've still got plenty of time, okay? Because we got to sort up pricing and technology here real quick. And we'll get that sorted out in the next 60 days, I'm confident, okay?

Avinatan Jaroslawicz

Got you. On the pricing side.

W. Rush

The demand's there. I am telling you there's going to be demand. I believe there will be demand. I don't look for demand to go away. It just got these uncertainties, man, and it will get itself sorted out, it always does.

Avinatan Jaroslawicz

All right. On this pricing dynamic, so if I'm understanding it correctly, it sounds kind of like the OEMs kind of underlying core pricing to cover costs and whatnot. Is that somewhat dependent on what the final NCP is going to look like? Is the thinking of it as like a maximum price that can be absorbed for next year and it's just a question of whether part of that goes to their margins or is just passed through or...

W. Rush

Well, from what I hear, we know that we've had some inflation more than the Feds want, right? It happens in the truck business, truck world to manufacturers. They've been absorbing. You can see margins and stuff. it's not hard to go find them, even whether it's even the Europeans have spun off their truck division, it's really easy to go find what truck margins are. So I expect manufacturers, I think, are not trying to be anything like gazing or anything. They're trying to recover some costs plus NCP. Or if you're doing new technology, who knows what it costs, okay, only you do. So -- but if you're going down the NCP route to begin with, which both of my manufacturers are, you're going to just have to bet on the draft and then it's trying to recover the inflationary pressures you've had, right, and cover your increased cost. And that gets you to the number you're supposed to be at, and that's where we will get to, okay? It just takes a little time validation of what those costs really are outside of NCPs.

And if everybody gets comfortable, I'm not going to get into the numbers and stuff I really don't want to. But at the same time, it's pretty simple. You got an NCP it's NCP plus recovering what your increased costs are. I don't think people are looking for big margins going into the year to begin with. It's not like you know you're going to have demand, but you don't have it now.

So you need to go build a backlog. Maybe you can work on it in the back half of the backlog. But right now, people did work on the back half of the backlog this year. I can tell you that, that was back in June and July when they were building it, okay? That will eventually happen again when we get the demand back for the new technology and the new pricing and stuff, upfront, manufacturers will be just trying to recover if they want down NCP, whatever the NCP is, plus the increase cost. I think that's what I'm seeing out there. It's just that, again, customers aren't a big hurry. You try to get them in a bigger hurry. They're not. They're taking so many trucks. I've gone over and over this right now. And that's my take on it. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. So on where we're at. We're just in this little space right now. I expect everything to sort itself out in the next 60 days is all I can tell you.

Avinatan Jaroslawicz

All right. And I just want to circle back on the parts and service business. So we were hearing over the last couple of months that some of the spike in operating costs put some pressure on demand there just with some strain on budgets, doesn't look like that was something that showed up in your numbers in Q3. Do you think that was a factor in the quarter for your business? Or we could have seen a stronger improvement had the costs, fuel and driver costs not spiked as they had? Or is this maybe an unrestrained kind of quarter?

W. Rush

Yes. I would tell you, we feel it. We -- I said -- one of the things when I said margins are not as high as they were, say, a year ago, they're in line with where they were the last quarter or 2, real close. Part of that was mix and part of it was competitive pressures to your comment, right? There's -- people were still really tight because especially the smaller guys that may not get all their fuel surcharges, they spend more money on fuel, right? So they're rather watch their maintenance and their repair budgets a lot tighter. Same thing. We've been dealing with for 3 years in the freight recession and you get all this fuel spike, and it adds more pressure into it. It's not just one thing. But yes, we know all the costs are up. You can see it inside the earnings releases, okay? So that's going to put pressure on all expenditures, right? And especially as you get to the end of the year and people put out a lot of their budget, you start seeing it here in Q4 sometimes. But I'm proud of the team.

We went out there, as I said, we continue to grow our national account business with a little less margin. Yes. But it's still help support the overall of what we're trying to accomplish. As I said, August was the best month we had. When you look at the way we do like measuring only by the hour, by the day. September was the second best month we had. So those were encouraging signs, right? So I think there's still underlying opportunity out there for us, like I know there is, okay? All we did was sort of bottom out. We were really flat. We really were flat overall a few months, I mean, last year, into this year, it was really flat. But we saw some increased demand in August and September. I'm not really want to put a number on October yet.

We've got a big week here to get it all figured out. But I feel good that it will be gradually sustainable, right? And at the same time, we're going to continue to look for M&A. I'll tell you that right now. I -- nothing big, but lots -- maybe you can put a lot of blunt singles together out there. But back to your real question, yes, the mix was one thing. It's there. Cost pressures put pressure on margins, right? Because everybody is out there in the marketplace going after it. So it's a lot of things, right? But guess what, we performed. In my mind, we performed as well as anybody in this environment that we were in, still on the parts and service side. I'm scrapping the truck side all the way from the parts and service side.

So we've been performing and continue to perform. We are looking to do that a little maybe next year, probably get some growth tailwinds in that. Last couple of years, it's been really difficult, but we are feeling good about the opportunity to grow our parts and service business sequentially better than we have the last couple of years. I'm not talking about just straight up growth. I'm talking about good, solid, gradual. Now we got to find what gradual is.

Hopefully, in the mid-singles would be nice is what we would like to see next year from a same-store perspective, and I'd be okay with that if that keeps going like that direction. I'm not looking for double-digit parts and service same-store growth. I am looking for mid-singles, maybe upper let's see, depending on the territory, which area it is in the country. But overall, I feel good about underlying demand across the board going into next year, not where we're at now, where we're at in parts and service feels decent. Truck may have a little bubbles going to really be good in Q4 and Q1, and we'll sort through these uncertainties, and I feel good about the whole year as a whole, but it won't be straight line. It never is a straight line.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Rusty Rush for closing remarks.

W. Rush

Well, folks, I appreciate your participation and your listening. This is the longest gap I have between calls because it will be middle of February before we talk again. So in closing, I'd like to wish everybody a happy Thanksgiving, a Merry Christmas, a Happy New Year and just overall very happy holidays this year. So enjoy your families, and we will look forward to talking to everybody in mid-February. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

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