BoE Decision in Spotlight: Pound Awaits Policy Signal, Dollar Strength Persistslg...

Bank of England Decision in Focus

The Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision today is one of the key market events of the week, as it marks the final major central bank announcement of this cycle. The outcome is expected to directly influence the British Pound (GBP) and set the tone for upcoming sessions.

Markets are deeply divided over the decision — between holding rates steady at 4.0% or cutting by 25 bps to 3.75%. The BoE faces a difficult balancing act: inflation remains stubbornly high at 3.8% (September), while weak GDP growth increases pressure to ease policy.

- Hold at 4.0%: This outcome would signal that the BoE remains more concerned about persistent inflation than short-term growth. The Pound could strengthen modestly in the near term.

- 25 bps Cut: A rate cut would confirm the BoE’s pivot toward supporting a slowing economy. However, this would likely trigger a sharp decline in GBPUSD as rate differentials widen against the Pound.

Beyond the rate decision, markets will pay close attention to the vote split, new economic projections, and the tone of the Monetary Policy Report — all of which will shape expectations for the BoE’s December and Q1 2026 meetings.

At this stage, even a “dovish hold” (holding rates but signaling readiness to cut) could still weigh on GBPUSD sentiment.

GBPUSD Technical Outlook

GBPUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5

GBPUSD has broken below the key 1.3180 support, marking a seven-month low and confirming a bearish breakout.

Technically, the pair remains vulnerable as long as it fails to reclaim the 1.3180–1.3200 zone — a critical psychological resistance area.

- Below 1.3180: Downside bias dominates, with potential targets toward 1.3050 and 1.2950.

- Above 1.3200: Only a sustained rebound above this zone would neutralize the current bearish bias.

Macro Outlook

If the BoE opts to hold rates, a short-term GBP rebound is possible. However, the bigger picture remains fragile, with the economy caught between stubborn inflation and sluggish growth — a scenario edging toward “stagflation”.

Even in the event of a temporary bounce, the broader directional bias remains neutral to bearish, as the BoE is widely expected to begin an easing cycle in the coming months. Volatility is likely to spike following the announcement, but sustained GBP strength appears limited.

U.S. Dollar Dominance Remains

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade near recent highs, underpinned by persistent safe-haven demand and lingering optimism following last week’s “hawkish cut” by the Federal Reserve. The central bank’s cautious tone signaled that monetary easing will proceed gradually, reinforcing the dollar’s relative strength against its peers.

Meanwhile, the October ADP National Employment Report offered mixed but mildly supportive data for the greenback:

- Jobs Added: 42,000 (vs. market expectations of 22,000)

- Previous Month: Revised loss of 29,000

The data suggest that while the U.S. labor market remains softening, it is not collapsing as feared after September’s contraction. This modest rebound helped reaffirm the Fed’s stance that further rate cuts will depend on incoming data rather than a preset path.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Market MT5

On the technical front, the US Dollar Index briefly pushed above the 100.00 level before retracing slightly, showing signs of short-term resistance. However, the broader structure remains bullish, supported by ongoing policy divergence and risk-aversion flows.

For GBPUSD, this dollar resilience implies that any short-term rebound could still present selling opportunities within a broader downtrend — a “sell-the-rally” environment likely to persist unless the BoE delivers a decisive policy surprise.

Quick Market Updates

Apart from the primary focus, here are updates on key market events:

- US Shutdown Breaks Record: The U.S. government shutdown is now the longest on record—day 36--increasing the immediate economic drag and uncertainty.

- Gold Stabilizes, But Lacks Momentum: Following the massive safe-haven unwinding after the U.S.-China truce, Gold is now finding a technical floor but remains fundamentally challenged.

- U.S. Stock Recovery in Focus: After the recent sharp valuation-driven correction, the U.S. stock market is showing signs of stabilizing ahead of today's key labor data.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.