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加密市场强势回暖!比特币重返6.4万美元上方,山寨币集体走强

2026-07-10 22:54:35
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摘要:加密货币市场周五继续上行,比特币升至6.44万美元,以太坊涨幅更大,山寨币普遍走强,市场情绪从谨慎转向乐观。衍生品数据显示,成交量回落但未平仓合约上升,显示反弹更多由战略性布局推动。与此同时,加密市场走势与美股期指分化,风险偏好回升迹象明显。

FX168财经报社讯 加密货币市场周五再度走高,比特币(BTC)报64,400美元,日内上涨超1%,并重新站上本周一未能有效突破的价位。若能进一步上破这一水平,市场普遍关注的下一目标将指向6月15日高点67,250美元。以太坊(ETH)表现更强,涨2.6%至1,790美元,正试图摆脱此前“高点和低点连续下移”的弱势结构。周末临近之际,山寨币板块也普遍走强,通常流动性偏低的时段里,Zcash(ZEC)和Aave(AAVE)均上涨约5%,显示在经历数月情绪降温后,投机性买盘正重新回流。

值得注意的是,加密市场与美国股市出现分化。标普500指数期货下跌0.1%,纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.4%,而数字资产整体延续升势,反映出资金对加密资产的风险偏好正在独立修复。衍生品市场方面,交易结构也在发生变化:过去24小时加密衍生品成交量下降7%至1,400亿美元,但未平仓合约(OI)上升3%至1,105.2亿美元,说明本轮反弹更像是由战略性持仓推动,而非高频投机交易主导。

比特币方面,主要交易所以美元和USDT计价的期货累计未平仓合约从26.2万枚升至27.2万枚,伴随现货价格突破6.4万美元,且资金费率保持为正、24小时OI调整后的累计成交量差(CVD)也为正,显示市场对多头押注的偏好正在增强。相比之下,以太坊期货未出现明显的OI增长,表明交易员对杠杆参与仍较谨慎。更广泛来看,多数代币的24小时CVD为正,意味着买盘正在从被动挂单转向更积极的市价单,通常被视为价格继续上行的支撑信号。

期权市场同样释放出偏乐观的信号。与BTC和ETH挂钩的隐含波动率指数继续下行,显示交易员预期市场将保持相对平静,而这往往是上涨行情中的常见特征。比特币波动率指数BVIV今日早些时候降至38.5,创6月6日以来最低。Deribit期权市场中,看跌期权偏斜持续走弱,说明随着价格反弹,市场对下行风险的担忧正在缓解。当前最活跃的合约包括执行价62,000美元、65,000美元和67,000美元的看涨期权,以及56,000美元的看跌期权。看涨期权代表对市场走强的押注。

个别代币方面,Lighter(LIT)延续近期强势,周五再涨逾5%,自5月16日以来累计涨幅已超过200%。Lighter是一家去中心化衍生品交易所,近期与Robinhood Chain达成合作,将其产品引入该券商平台的2,800万客户。竞争对手Hyperliquid此前也受2026年永续合约热潮推动,股价上月一度创下76美元纪录高位,随后有所回落;其代币HYPE周五上涨2.8%至68美元,连续更高低点的形态显示多头结构仍在。AI代币则在经历上半年强势后继续落后于大盘,Bittensor(TAO)周五在整体市场转强的背景下基本持平。

FX168点评

本轮上涨的关键不只是价格回升,更在于衍生品与期权数据同步改善,说明市场情绪正在从防御转向布局。比特币重新站上6.4万美元、以太坊相对跑赢,以及山寨币在低流动性周末前走强,均表明风险偏好有所修复。不过,美股期指同步走弱也提示资金并非全面转向高风险资产,短期内加密市场更可能受自身仓位和情绪驱动。若OI继续上升而波动率维持低位,市场对进一步上行的预期将更稳固,但以太坊和AI代币的滞后表现也说明板块分化仍将持续。

备选标题

比特币重返6.4万美元上方 期权与衍生品数据释放偏多信号

加密市场周五走强:BTC涨2% ETH领跑 山寨币情绪回暖

衍生品持仓回升推动加密反弹 比特币瞄准6月高点67,250美元

英文原文

The crypto market took another leg higher on Friday with bitcoin BTC $64,361.91 trading at $64,400, up by 2% since midnight UTC. The largest cryptocurrency is currently at the price it failed to penetrate on Monday. If it can break past this level, it will likely advance toward the June 15 high of $67,250. Ether (ETH) outperformed bitcoin, rising 2.6% to $1,790 as it looks to snap a trend of sequential lower highs and lower lows. There were also notable gains across the altcoin sector ahead of the weekend, typically a period of lower liquidity. Zcash (ZEC) and aave AAVE $96.58 both rose by around 5% as optimism is slowly crept back into more speculative bets after months of waning sentiment. Crypto diverged from U.S. equities, with S&P 500 index futures and Nasdaq 100 futures falling 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Derivatives positioning Crypto derivatives markets are showing signs of stabilization, with speculation easing and longer-term positioning increasing. Volume over 24 hours fell 7% to $140 billion, while open interest (OI) rose 3% to $110.52 billion. This shift suggests the recovery is being driven more by strategic positioning than by high‑frequency speculative activity. Cumulative OI in bitcoin's USD- and USDT-denominated futures on major exchanges has picked up slightly, from 262K to 272K, as the spot price topped $64,000. When read alongside positive funding rates and positive 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD), the OI increase indicates a growing bias for bullish bets. Ether has yet to see a meaningful rise in futures OI, a sign that traders are still staying away from leverage. In the broader market, most tokens have positive 24-hour CVDs, a sign that buyers are becoming more aggressive, trading market orders rather than passive limit orders. This set expectations for continued price rises ahead. Confirmatory signals come from options-based implied volatility indexes tied to BTC and ETH, which continue to drop. It's a sign of traders expecting market calm, a feature of rallies. BTC's index, BVIV, fell to 38.5 early today, the lowest since June 6. In the options market on Deribit, put skews continue to weaken as the price rally eases downside concerns. Calls at $62,000, $65,000, and $67,000 are among the most-traded instruments, along with the $56,000 put. A call represents a bullish bet on the market. Token talk Lighter (LIT) extended the standout performance of recent weeks, rising by more than 5% to take its advance since May 16 to more than 200%. Lighter is a decentralized derivatives exchange that recently signed a deal with Robinhood Chain to bring its product to brokerage platform's 28 million customers. Rival Hyperliquid has previously benefited from 2026's buzz around perpetuals, setting a record high of $76 last month before a pullback. Its HYPE token rose 2.8% on Friday to $68, with a series of higher lows pointing toward a bullish posture. AI tokens continued to lag behind the rest of the market after a strong first half. Bittensor (TAO) held steady on Friday despite the marketwide shift to the upside.

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